Moderna (MRNA) Stock Jumps After FDA Finally Approves Its Flu Vaccine

TLDR

• The FDA approved Moderna’s mRNA-based flu vaccine, mFlusiva, for adults aged 50 and older.
• MRNA stock is up 3.6% to $58.30 ahead of the open following the approval.
• mFlusiva is Moderna’s second commercial mRNA vaccine and fourth FDA-approved product overall.
• Analysts don’t expect meaningful revenue from mFlusiva until the second half of 2027.
• Of 23 analysts covering MRNA, 18 carry a “hold” rating, with a consensus price target of $55.12.

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Moderna (MRNA) stock is up 3.6% to $58.30 ahead of the open on Wednesday after the FDA approved its mRNA-based seasonal flu vaccine, mFlusiva, for adults aged 50 and older.

Moderna, Inc., MRNA

The approval came late Wednesday and marks Moderna’s second commercial mRNA vaccine, extending its respiratory portfolio beyond Covid-19.

The stock has had a rough run lately, dropping 31.2% over the past month after pulling back from its July 6 annual high of $85.60. Despite that slide, MRNA is still up 90.8% in 2026 and 104.8% over the past 12 months.

The approval follows a bumpy path to clearance. In February, the FDA issued a “refuse-to-file” letter, declining to review the application after Moderna tested the vaccine against a standard flu shot rather than Fluzone High-Dose, the FDA’s recommended comparator for older adults.

The agency reversed that decision just two days later. By June, an FDA advisory committee voted unanimously to recommend mFlusiva for adults 50 and older.

Moderna expects mFlusiva to be available for the 2026-2027 flu season, but the company missed key pre-season contracting cycles. That means analysts are not penciling in meaningful revenue from the vaccine until the second half of 2027.

Wall Street Still Cautious

The broader analyst picture remains lukewarm. Of the 23 analysts covering Moderna, 18 carry a “hold” rating. Just two rate it a “strong buy,” and two rate it a “strong sell.”

The 12-month consensus price target sits at $55.12, which is actually a small discount to where the stock is trading right now.

Short interest is elevated too. About 14.3% of available float is sold short, with a short ratio of nearly seven days. That suggests a lot of skepticism is still baked into the stock.

mRNA Platform Validation

The approval does carry strategic weight beyond just flu shots. It is a step toward a combined Covid-flu vaccine, a product Moderna pulled from FDA review last year after regulators asked for more data.

It also acts as a public validation of Moderna’s mRNA platform, which has faced political headwinds. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. directed the cancellation of roughly $500 million in federal mRNA vaccine contracts in late 2025, citing claims the vaccines caused “new mutations,” a claim that is not supported by scientific evidence. Kennedy has said mRNA technology “poses more risks than benefits.”

Moderna’s bottom line is still largely driven by its Covid-19 franchise, including Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE, as its most recent earnings showed.

mFlusiva is now Moderna’s fourth FDA-approved product and its fifth approved product globally.