SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Jumps 6% as $116 Billion Lock-up Expiry Fails to Spark a Sell-Off

TLDR

• SPCX jumped more than 6% on Thursday despite 911.5 million insider shares, worth roughly $116 billion, becoming eligible for trading.
• SpaceX uses a staggered lock-up plan rather than a single expiration date, which helped prevent a mass sell-off.
• Elon Musk’s 42% stake, around 6.4 billion shares, remains locked until mid-2027.
• The float expansion is set to boost SPCX’s Nasdaq-100 weighting from around 1% to over 3.5%, drawing index fund buying.
• Wall Street holds a Moderate Buy consensus with an average price target of $232.11, implying over 100% upside from current levels.

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SpaceX (SPCX) stock climbed more than 6% on Thursday, trading back toward $115, even as one of the largest post-IPO lock-up expirations in recent market history hit the market.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Over 911.5 million insider shares, worth roughly $116 billion, became eligible for trading. Most expected a sharp drop. It did not happen.

The stock had sold off on Wednesday following its earnings report. Thursday’s bounce came as a surprise to many traders who had been bracing for immediate selling pressure.

SpaceX went public in June at $135 per share. It hit a 52-week high of $225.64 and has a 52-week low of $104.83. It opened Friday at $114.92.

Why the Lock-up Did Not Sink the Stock

SpaceX does not use a standard 180-day lock-up that expires all at once. Instead, it runs a staggered schedule that releases new blocks of insider shares gradually over time. That structure helped avoid a flood of supply hitting the market on a single day.

Elon Musk’s stake of roughly 6.4 billion shares, representing about 42% of the company, stays locked until mid-2027. That is a large portion of supply that is not going anywhere soon.

The float expansion also played a role. As more shares become freely tradable, SPCX’s weighting in the Nasdaq-100 is expected to rise from around 1% to more than 3.5%. Index funds and large managers likely stepped in to buy newly freed shares to keep pace with the index rebalance.

Cathie Wood’s ARK funds reportedly bought SPCX during the Wednesday selloff.

Earnings and Analyst Reaction

SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year over year, beating analyst estimates. EPS came in at -$0.09, better than the -$0.26 consensus. Starlink subscribers reached 12 million, and AI revenue grew rapidly.

Capital expenditure for the quarter was $18.4 billion, including $15.8 billion on AI infrastructure. The company posted a net loss for the quarter.

SpaceX and Tesla also confirmed a $16.8 billion investment in an AI chip factory, called Terafab, in Texas. SpaceX plans to include dedicated power plants and battery storage at the facility.

Bernstein raised its price target following earnings. JPMorgan, Needham, and Cantor Fitzgerald also cited AI, Starlink, and cloud computing as growth drivers.

Bank of America started coverage in July with a Buy and a $235 price target. Raymond James reiterated a Strong Buy on July 27. Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating on July 24.

The current Wall Street consensus is Moderate Buy. The average price target is $232.11, implying around 102% upside from current levels. The breakdown is 3 Strong Buys, 25 Buys, 9 Holds, and 2 Sells.

Castle Rock Wealth Management purchased a new position worth $2.31 million in Q2. Several other firms, including Apella Capital and KERR Financial Planning, also initiated positions during the quarter.

Additional lock-up expirations could bring more than 4 billion shares to market by year-end.