The Trade Desk (TTD) Stock Drops 27% After Revenue Miss and Weak Guidance

TLDR

• Q2 revenue came in at $715M, missing the $752.61M forecast, with growth slowing to just 3% year-over-year
• Adjusted EBITDA of $241M fell well below Wall Street estimates
• Q3 revenue guidance set at $650M, a projected 12% annual decline, the first in the company’s post-IPO history
• Raymond James downgraded TTD to Underperform; Baird cut to Neutral; Truist and Guggenheim also downgraded
• TTD stock has fallen over 53% year-to-date and is now trading near its 52-week low of $16.70

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The Trade Desk posted second-quarter results that landed well below expectations, sending the stock down more than 27% in premarket trading on Friday. TTD was trading around $12.71 in premarket, down from $17.67.

The Trade Desk, Inc., TTD

Q2 revenue came in at $715 million against a forecast of $752.61 million. That represents just 3% year-over-year growth, a sharp slowdown from the 18.7% growth recorded in Q2 2025.

TRADE DESK $TTD Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS

🔹 Revenue: $715M (Est. $751M) 🔴; +3% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.34 (Est. $0.40) 🔴; -17% YoY
🔹 EBITDA: $241M (Est. $261M) 🔴
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $158M (Est. $187M) 🔴

Q3 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: At least $650M (Est. $805M) 🔴
🔹 EBITDA: ~$160M… pic.twitter.com/4VArq3taMl

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) August 6, 2026

Adjusted EBITDA hit $241 million, also falling short of Wall Street projections.

CEO Jeff Green acknowledged the miss directly. “This quarter did not meet the standard we set for ourselves,” he said, but pointed to AI and measurement capabilities as areas of focus going forward.

The bigger concern for investors is what comes next.

Q3 Guidance Raises Red Flags

The Trade Desk guided Q3 revenue to $650 million, which would represent a 12% year-over-year decline. That would mark the first revenue drop in the company’s post-IPO history, outside of pandemic-era comparisons.

Adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q3 came in at $160 million, slashed by 52.7% from prior estimates.

Wolfe Research attributed the slowdown to a mix of macro headwinds, advertiser budget cuts, a shift toward programmatic guaranteed and fixed-price deals, and a pullback in brand ad spend.

Eighteen analysts have now revised earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period, according to InvestingPro data.

Wall Street Downgrades Pile Up

The analyst reaction was swift and harsh.

Raymond James downgraded TTD to Underperform from Market Perform. The firm flagged that forces outside the company’s control, including macro conditions and advertiser preference for lower-cost media, make a return to growth difficult.

Raymond James also noted that TTD still trades at a premium to its ad-tech peer group, which averages around 9x EV/EBITDA. The firm said that premium is hard to justify given the outlook.

Baird cut its rating to Neutral, calling the Q2 print “just awful, plainly said.” Analysts there said they “do not see a justifiable path forward” for the stock at current levels.

Truist Securities downgraded from Buy to Hold, cutting its price target from $35 to $16. Guggenheim went from Buy to Neutral and slashed its target from $25 to $12.

TTD has now lost more than 53% year-to-date and is trading near its 52-week low of $16.70. Over the past year, the stock is down roughly 80%.

Guggenheim’s revised price target of $12 sits below where the stock was already trading in premarket Friday.