SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Jumps 16% After Analyst Upgrade and Strong Earnings

TLDR

• SpaceX stock rose 15.8% to $133.11 after Argus upgraded the stock from “hold” to “buy” with a $160 price target
• Q2 revenue hit $7.81 billion, up 91.9% year over year, with a loss of $0.09 per share beating the expected $0.26 loss
• AI cloud contracts totaled up to $20.8 billion, including a $6.7 billion deal, with AI revenue tripling to $2.56 billion
• Options traders are selling puts and buying calls, suggesting sophisticated money thinks the stock may be bottoming
• The first insider lock-up expiration passed with less selling pressure than expected, though further unlocks through December remain

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SpaceX (SPCX) jumped 15.8% on Friday, trading as high as $133.48 before settling at $133.11, after Argus upgraded the stock from “hold” to “buy” and set a $160 price target. Volume came in roughly 110% above average, with around 237 million units changing hands.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The move follows a rough stretch for the stock. SPCX made a new low on Monday before earnings, and has largely traded around $110 since late July. Friday’s pop snapped that pattern.

The catalyst was two-fold. The Argus upgrade landed the same day the first insider lock-up period expired, an event many had expected to trigger heavy selling. Instead, the stock held firm.

Quarterly results released Tuesday beat on both lines. Revenue came in at $7.81 billion, up 91.9% from the same period last year. The company posted a loss of $0.09 per share, well ahead of the $0.26 loss analysts had forecast.

AI Cloud Contracts Drive Optimism

SpaceX secured up to $20.8 billion in AI cloud contracts this quarter, including a single $6.7 billion agreement. AI revenue more than tripled to around $2.56 billion. That growth is shifting how analysts think about the company, with many now viewing it as an integrated space, connectivity, and AI infrastructure play.

Starlink also had a strong quarter. Subscribers reportedly doubled to 12 million, and government and enterprise connectivity revenue continued to grow.

Other analysts weighed in alongside Argus. Sanford C. Bernstein set a $248 price target. JPMorgan raised its target too. The consensus across 40 analysts sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $227.31.

Two analysts rate it Strong Buy, 25 have Buy ratings, eight have Hold, and five have Sell ratings.

Options Traders Signal Possible Bottom

In the options market, the tone shifted Thursday. Rather than the out-of-the-money call buying that has dominated since the IPO, bigger trades involved selling puts alongside buying calls, a structure called a risk reversal.

One trader sold $12 million in 90-strike puts expiring June 2027, then bought $4.3 million in 220-strike calls for the same date. A separate trade involved selling $3.5 million in 75-strike puts expiring January 2028 and buying $5 million in 185-strike calls. Both are bets the stock won’t fall much further, with upside exposure if it rallies.

The 14-day RSI bottomed late last month, and implied volatility has dropped to its lowest since June 30.

The bears do have real ammunition. SpaceX spent roughly $18.4 billion last quarter, including $15.8 billion on AI infrastructure. The company remains GAAP-loss-making, and the $16.8 billion Terafab project carries execution risk. Additional share unlocks through December remain an overhang.

For the full fiscal year, analysts expect SpaceX to post a loss of $0.64 per share.