Social Security 2027 estimates currently point to a larger cost-of-living adjustment than beneficiaries received this year, with leading forecasts ranging from 3.6% to 3.8%. The final figure is still months away, and the next major clue will arrive on Aug. 12 when the government releases July inflation data — the first month that directly counts toward the 2027 COLA calculation.
Social Security 2027 COLA Estimates Reach as High as 3.8%
The Senior Citizens League currently projects a 3.8% Social Security COLA for 2027, unchanged from its June forecast and one percentage point above the 2.8% adjustment applied to 2026 benefits. AARP is slightly more cautious, forecasting a 3.6% increase based on recent inflation data and expectations for prices over the coming months.
Those private forecasts are notably higher than the 2.7% intermediate assumption in the 2026 Social Security Trustees Report for the COLA effective in December 2026 and payable in January 2027. The difference underscores how quickly the outlook has shifted as inflation accelerated during parts of 2026.
For beneficiaries, even a few tenths of a percentage point can make a noticeable difference. The Social Security Administration reported that the average retired worker received $2,084.40 per month in June 2026. Holding that starting benefit constant, a 3.6% adjustment would add about $75 a month, while a 3.8% increase would add roughly $79. Actual 2027 payments will vary by beneficiary and will be calculated from each person’s benefit amount.
How the 2027 Increase Compares With Past Social Security COLAs
Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustments Since 1975. Source: Social Security data
The historical record puts today’s estimates in perspective. Social Security COLAs climbed above 10% during the inflation shock of the early 1980s and reached 8.7% for 2023 benefits, before cooling as inflation eased. The 2.8% COLA for 2026 was much closer to the lower adjustments seen during more stable inflation periods.
A 3.6%-3.8% increase would therefore represent a meaningful acceleration from 2026 without approaching the exceptional adjustments seen during the highest-inflation years.
CPI-W Will Decide the Final Social Security 2027 Estimate
The COLA is not based on a forecast or a decision by Social Security officials. Federal law uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, comparing the average index for July, August and September with the third-quarter average from the previous year.
CPI-W Trend Used to Calculate Social Security COLA. Source: ssa.gov
For 2025, that third-quarter CPI-W average was 317.265. The average for the same three months of 2026 will determine the increase payable at the start of 2027.
June’s CPI-W stood at 327.075, up 3.5% from a year earlier, but June does not directly enter the COLA formula. It mainly shows why current estimates have moved above this year’s 2.8% adjustment.
The first decisive number arrives Wednesday, Aug. 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July CPI data. August inflation follows on Sept. 11, with September figures scheduled for Oct. 14. Only after all three readings are available will the exact 2027 Social Security COLA be known.
For now, the clearest answer to searches for Social Security 2027 estimates is a projected COLA of roughly 3.6% to 3.8%. Whether beneficiaries ultimately receive an increase near that range will depend on inflation during the three-month measurement window now beginning.
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