- ADA trades at $0.1863 on August 12, down 0.32%, slipping below the 0.618 Fibonacci at $0.1998 with the 0.5 level at $0.1880 as the next support
- Analyst Ali Charts flagged three warning signals: falling whale count, an MVRV death cross, and a Tom DeMark sell signal pointing to $0.170
- The 30-year US bond yield hit 5.28%, its highest since the 2007 financial crisis, adding macro pressure on risk assets including crypto
The Cardano price prediction points to $0.1998 on the bullish side and $0.1762 on the bearish side, with ADA trading at $0.1863 today after slipping below the 0.618 Fibonacci as three separate warning signals fired at once.
ADA Price Analysis: Cardano Slips Below the 0.618 Fibonacci to $0.1863
ADA is retreating from its August highs above $0.20, slipping back below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $0.1998 and pressing toward the 0.5 level at $0.1880. Today’s session opened at $0.1869, tapped $0.1882, slid to a low of $0.1857, and settled at $0.1863.
The 20-day EMA at $0.1840 and 50-day at $0.1803 sit just below as the first support cluster. The Supertrend, a trend-following indicator that flips bullish or bearish as momentum shifts, sits at $0.1682 and remains bullish below price, keeping the broader trend intact despite the short-term weakness.
The 100-day EMA at $0.1962 has flipped back to resistance above. If the 0.5 Fibonacci at $0.1880 fails to hold, the 0.382 Fibonacci at $0.1762 becomes the next test, with the 20-day EMA providing support around the same level.
ADA Support and Resistance Levels, August 12, 2026
| Type | Price | Level |
| Resistance | $0.1962 | 100-day EMA |
| Resistance | $0.1998 | 0.618 Fibonacci, now resistance |
| Resistance | $0.2165 | 0.786 Fibonacci |
| Support | $0.1880 | 0.5 Fibonacci, immediate floor |
| Support | $0.1840 | 20-day EMA |
| Support | $0.1803 | 50-day EMA |
| Support | $0.1762 | 0.382 Fibonacci |
| Support | $0.1682 | Supertrend, bullish below price |
ADA Analysis: Ali Charts Flags Three Warning Signals
Analyst Ali Martinez published a six-part thread on August 11 laying out three simultaneous warning signals for ADA.
Falling Whale Count
Since August 2, the number of whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA has dropped from 2,370 to 2,340. That 30-wallet decline suggests some large holders took profits or redistributed after the recent price run rather than holding through the consolidation.
MVRV Death Cross
The second signal is an MVRV death cross, where ADA’s MVRV ratio, a metric comparing market value to realized value, crossed below its 7-day moving average. That crossover points to weakening momentum and raises the odds of a deeper correction before any recovery resumes.
Tom DeMark Sell Signal
The third is a Tom DeMark Sequential sell signal on the daily chart, which typically points to a one-to-four candle pullback or the start of a new bearish countdown. Ali Charts said that if all three signals confirm, ADA could decline toward $0.170 as channel mid-range support, with $0.144 as the deeper floor if that level breaks.
Cardano News: What’s Pressuring ADA’s Price Beyond the Chart?
The 30-year US Treasury bond yield hit 5.28% on August 11, its highest level since the 2007 financial crisis, according to LuckSide Crypto. When bond yields rise this sharply, capital tends to rotate out of risk assets like crypto and into fixed income, since bonds now offer a more attractive guaranteed return. LuckSide flagged it as a development worth watching closely, particularly since stocks have been performing well and any reversal there could drag crypto down alongside it.
Cardano’s Hydra Scaling Solution Just Got 85x Faster
IOG highlighted a major performance boost for Hydra, Cardano’s layer 2 scaling solution built to process transactions off the main chain for speed. A 4,000 UTXO commitment that previously took 2.13 seconds now completes in just 25 milliseconds, an 85x improvement. LuckSide noted that while the market may be focused on short-term price action, infrastructure improvements at this scale build the foundation for longer-term ecosystem growth.
Hoskinson to Keynote a Washington DC Blockchain Conference
Charles Hoskinson is set to keynote the Government Blockchain Association’s Future of Money, Governance and the Law conference in Washington DC on September 30, joining speakers from the United Nations, World Bank, US Treasury, Binance, Circle, Coinbase, and Ripple.
The event focuses on how AI, blockchain, and quantum technology are reshaping financial services and government regulation.
ADA Price Prediction: Upside and Downside Targets
Bull Case, Target: $0.1998 (0.618 Fibonacci)
The 0.5 Fibonacci at $0.1880 and the 20-day EMA at $0.1840 hold as support on the current pullback. Tomorrow’s CPI report comes in soft, removing the bond yield concern and triggering the mid-week bounce LuckSide identified as a recurring pattern. The three Ali Charts warning signals fail to confirm as buying pressure returns and ADA reclaims the 0.618 Fibonacci at $0.1998.
Bear Case, Risk Level: $0.1762 (0.382 Fibonacci)
The 0.5 Fibonacci at $0.1880 breaks on a daily close and the Ali Charts warning signals confirm in sequence. Bond yield pressure and a weak CPI print keep risk appetite subdued, and whale distribution continues to weigh on price. ADA loses the 20-day EMA at $0.1840 and slides toward the 0.382 Fibonacci at $0.1762, with Ali Charts’ $0.170 target coming into view as the next meaningful floor.
FAQs
ADA trades at $0.1863 after slipping below the 0.618 Fibonacci. The bullish target is $0.1998; the bearish risk level is $0.1762, with $0.170 the deeper target if Ali Charts’ warning signals confirm.
A falling whale count (down 30 wallets since August 2), an MVRV death cross signaling weakening momentum, and a Tom DeMark Sequential sell signal that typically points to a pullback or new bearish countdown.
The 30-year US bond yield hit 5.28%, its highest since the 2007 financial crisis. Sharp yield increases like this tend to pull capital out of risk assets like crypto and into fixed income, adding macro pressure independent of ADA’s own chart.
Hydra is Cardano’s layer 2 scaling solution, designed to process transactions off the main chain for speed. A recent upgrade cut the time to process a 4,000 UTXO commitment from 2.13 seconds to 25 milliseconds, a meaningful infrastructure gain even though it hasn’t moved price directly.
The 0.5 Fibonacci at $0.1880. Holding it keeps the path toward $0.1998 open; losing it on a daily close opens the door to $0.1762 and potentially $0.170.
ADA has real infrastructure progress behind it, but three separate warning signals and rising bond yields add genuine near-term risk. Weigh the bullish and bearish cases above against your own risk tolerance.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.
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