What to know:
- Galaxy Digital cuts CLARITY Act passage odds to 10% for 2026.
- Senate has only two to three weeks to advance the bill after September 14.
- Stablecoin yield rules and crypto ethics provisions remain key disputes.
CLARITY Act is now estimated to have only a 10% chance of becoming law in 2026, says Galaxy Digital, with legislators struggling with some outstanding political differences amid a packed calendar in the Senate.
The company said there would be only two to three weeks for debating the bill following the return of Congress from its recess beginning September 14. The delay in initiating the process may render the passage of the bill impossible.
Alex Thorn, who is the head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, said Congress must act quickly; otherwise, if there is no motion-to-proceed vote on the part of the Senate when it resumes, the CLARITY Act might take up almost all of the work time in the Senate.
CLARITY Act Faces Key Political Challenges
Some unresolved key issues add to the uncertainty around the CLARITY Act. These include ethical guidelines for government officials and the participation of government officials in the crypto industry.
One such major controversial area is the stablecoin yield. Banks are opposing certain provisions that will allow cryptocurrency companies to provide stablecoin yields without having to follow regulations similar to banks.
The odds of the bill have been gradually reduced by Galaxy Digital. On May 22, the company estimated the passage of the bill at 75%. This was subsequently revised downwards to 60% on June 6 and further down to 50% on June 26. The 10% estimate is currently a big drop in the odds of the bill being passed.
Also Read | Solana Price Prediction: Could the $60–$40 Zone Trigger a Major Rally?
Crypto Industry Continues to Support the Bill
The objective of the CLARITY Act is to create a more defined legal regime for digital assets in the US. The proponents feel that such legislation would bring more clarity for crypto firms and the role of regulators.
Despite getting approved by the Senate Banking Committee in May, the bill has been receiving a lot of flak from Democrats and banking industry representatives. The criticism is mostly against the provision in the bill about stablecoins and the possibility of crypto firms having a competitive edge over banks.
The crypto sector has also continued to advocate for legislation through Congress. At the start of June, over 200 crypto firms and other groups asked the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act through a letter shared by the crypto advocacy organization Stand With Crypto.
As the Senate is expected to reconvene on September 14, there is only a small window of time left for resolving their differences. According to the latest prediction from Galaxy Digital, the prospects for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 are bleak.
Also Read | StablecoinX Reports $232.6M Assets and 3B ENA in Q2 2026
Be the first to comment