What to know:
- Bitcoin price may near accumulation as 8 of 12 VanEck capitulation signals stay active.
- Bitcoin’s 49% drawdown is milder than past bear markets that fell between 78% and 94%.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs drew $663M as long-term holdings fell by 356,534 BTC in 30 days.
VanEck said Bitcoin price may be nearing an accumulation phase after eight of its 12 capitulation indicators remained active as of Aug. 12. The asset manager said the current correction has lasted ten months since Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak.
VanEck said a potential turning point could emerge between September and November if earlier cycle patterns repeat. However, the firm cautioned that the timeline does not represent a firm Bitcoin price forecast.
Why VanEck Sees Bitcoin Price Nearing a Bottom
According to VanEck, a signal is active when it hits an extreme historical percentile. Most signals have to be in the lowest 15% of the historical data, or 10% for higher signals which imply stress.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Eyes $65,000 as Volatility Compression Deepens
Price drawdown operates on a different criterion. The signal is activated by VanEck when Bitcoin drops by at least 35% from its all-time high.
Bitcoin price was roughly 49% below its all-time high in October. But the drawdown fell in the 35th percentile of historical drawdowns.
Applying the same percentile criteria would reduce the number of active signals to seven. Institutional ownership and spot ETP demand were likely to result in a milder bear market.
VanEck expected a milder trough, but that was only an assumption. Drawdown in previous Bitcoin bear markets ranged between 78% and 94%.
VanEck found no significant short-term edge. With eight to 12 signals, Bitcoin gave an average 12.8% return over the following 90 days.
This figure was lower than 15.2% of the baseline. In 180 days, the average return rose to 32%, again lower than the baseline of 36.3%.
Outperformance was seen only over one year. VanEck cautioned that the above was based on 115 observation days with high overlap and only a few market episodes.
VanEck did not value the one-year outcome much. The dataset could signal the late cycle but cannot pinpoint the bottom point.
Fund Flows Shape Bitcoin Price Outlook
U.S. spot-based Bitcoin ETPs had $663 million worth of net inflows in the 30-day period reported by VanEck. This amount corresponded to about 10,400 BTC and marked a correction from the previous month’s outflows of $2.4 billion.
U.S. spot-based funds were down $385.2 million for the week ending Aug. 14. However, demand improved after that.
According to Farside data, there were $297.5 million of net inflows on Aug. 17 and another $189.3 million on Aug. 18. In total, $486.8 million offset the previous week’s outflows.
The price of Bitcoin traded at about $64,250 on Aug. 19. This price exceeded VanEck’s Aug. 11 reference close of $63,549
Coins that have been in holdings for more than one year saw a drop of 356,534 BTC over 30 days. The number of holdings went down to 11.84 million BTC, which is 59.1% of total circulation.
All six long-term holder age groups recorded declines. Coins held for one to two years saw the largest drop, falling by about 156,000 BTC.
VanEck said some of the activity may reflect wallet security moves rather than selling. However, the firm noted that this explanation remains difficult to verify. The September-to-November period will provide the next test for its Bitcoin outlook.
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This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.
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