Bitcoin Consolidates Near $77K as $90K Odds Hit 48%

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated above $77,000 after Friday’s Wall Street open as gold joined the crypto rally to hit 14-week highs.

Key points:

• Bitcoin and gold both hit their highest levels since May 15 against the US dollar.
• Analysis ties the strong performance firmly to US government debt policy.
• Polymarket odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 before 2027 reach 48%.

Analysis: Bitcoin and gold gains not “surprise”

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD cooling after reaching its highest levels since May 15, still up nearly 6% on the day.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold echoed the move, reaching multi-month highs of $4,632 per ounce, up 2.2% on the day at the time of writing. On a monthly basis, BTC/USD and XAU/USD were up 13% and 16%, respectively.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“What’s happening now in gold and crypto should not come as a surprise,” market commentary The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a response on X.

Kobeissi attributed the rapid gains in precious metals and crypto to a combination of inflation, deficit spending and US Treasury policy. Record government deficit spending and the Treasury Department’s pledge to at least double the size of certain debt buyback operations to $4 billion helped drive the rally in both asset classes, Kobeissi argued.

Discussing Bitcoin’s reaction to the current macro landscape, trading company QCP Capital noted that the financial stress signals went beyond the US, highlighting surging Japanese government bond yields after a rare joint currency intervention in the yen earlier this month.

“The most notable cross-asset signal this week has been the divergence after Treasury’s announcement. Treasuries initially rallied before giving back much of the move. BTC and gold did not retrace to the same extent,” it wrote in its latest Market Color analysis, adding:

“That does not establish a new liquidity or monetary regime, but it does highlight the sensitivity of alternative assets to changes in long-end rates and the dollar.”

Polymarket 2026 odds of $90,000 BTC near 50%

As BTC price upside passed 20% over two days, consensus over potential targets through year-end began to improve. 

Data from prediction service Polymarket put the odds of BTC/USD hitting $90,000 before 2027 at 48% at the time of writing, up sharply since the start of the week.

Odds of BTC/USD hitting $90,000 by Jan. 1, 2027 (screenshot). Source: Polymarket

Related: Strategy Bitcoin treasury hits breakeven point as BTC price passes $77K

Some market participants, however, remained skeptical. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital stressed that Bitcoin needed to reclaim its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,232, a trend line it rejected in January.

“Break the Downtrend and Bitcoin will confirm entry into a new technical Macro Uptrend. Reject from here however and price will maintain its series of Lower Highs,” he told X followers. 

“History suggests there’s still time for price to continue its Downtrend.”

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com