DraftKings Week 1 Early Look From The Defense

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans -2.5, 40.5

This game initially started with the over/under at 39.5. After Week 1 of preseason (and as of this writing, the Jets have not played), the line has moved up one point.

Both teams will enter the season anew. The Jets were ultra-aggressive in the offseason with their acquisitions, especially on defense. The Titans will enter the season with a new head coach, Robert Saleh, who was recently not only the head coach of the Jets but also last season the defensive coordinator of the San Francisco 49ers.

2025 Stats

Points Allowed: Titans 28th, allowing 28.1; Jets 31s,t allowing 29.6

Rushing Yards Allowed: Titans 14th, allowing 111.6; Jets 29t,h allowing 139.5

Passing Yards Allowed: Titans 23rd, allowing 230.5; Jets 17th, allowing 216.1

Tennessee Titans 2026

The Titans not only hired defensive-minded head coach Saleh, but Saleh in turn hired Gus Bradley as his defensive coordinator. Saleh will retain the defensive play-calling.

Saleh traditionally employs an “aggressive attacking style. His schemes prioritize a fast, penetrating front four to generate pressure without relying on heavy blitzing. ( Last season, the Titans were tied for 12th in the league with 42 sacks. Saleh’s Niners were last with 20.) His schemes rely almost entirely on the front four winning their one-on-one matchups. He generally plays without a traditional nose tackle, depending instead on two interior defensive tackles and two defensive ends who attack gaps and can penetrate.

The secondary usually consists of two-high safety shells pre-snap, rotating a safety down post-snap to confuse the quarterback and counter play action.

V. Geno Smith: Smith and the Las Vegas Raiders had a horrendous season last year. Offensively, Smith and the Raiders were 32nd in points per game (14.2), total yards per game (247.0), and first downs per game (15.1); this was also while playing behind the 32nd-ranked offensive line. Coincidentally, or not, his current team, the Jets, ranked 29th in all the same categories.

Smith will now be playing with a better offensive line, but his consistency and processing issues when facing heavy pressure play into Saleh’s scheme. And then there is the issue of him holding the ball too long:2.70 seconds last season and 2.72 seconds in 2024, seems like a Jeffery Simmons kinda game.

New York Jets 2026

The Jets prioritized fixing their defense this year. Their bottom-of-the-barrel ranking in sacks, pressure rate, and interceptions could not sit well with a defense-minded head coach. So, now the head coach will be calling the defensive plays with his arsenal of hand-picked players designed to stop the run (2025: 29th in rushing yards allowed per game, 139.5) and to get some takeaways (2025: zero interceptions).

Per Sharp Football Analysis, last season the Jets allowed 4.4 yards per carry, which was 21st,t but also were seventh in yards before contact allowed on those runs. They were 32nd in pressure rate and 31st in sacks. Their pass defense allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt while finishing last in EPA per pass attempt allowed.

Enter free-agency acquisitions: DT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Demario Davis, S Minkah Fitzpatrick, and first-round pick David Bailey.

Glen’s defense schemes traditionally have operated out of nickel sets 70% of the time, putting emphasis on even fronts. Glenn’s newly acquired veterans and rookie Bailey will go against second-year quarterback Cam Ward and reported quarterback whisperer Brian Daboll. Ward, in his first year, was prone to playing hero ball and trusting his arm too much as he played behind the 23rd-ranked offensive line. Unfortunately, Sharp Football Analysis has the line ranked 30th going into the 2026 season.

SAFE PLAY: Tennessee Titans defense

HIGH VARIANCE GPP: Smith+A. Mitchell + Jets defense

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders -3.5, 40.5 o/u

The line has moved slightly as the Raiders are now favored by 4.0. Both teams begin the season with revamped coaching staffs:

Miami Dolphins

Head Coach: Jeff Hafley

Offensive Coordinator: Bobby Slowik

Defensive Coordinator: Sean Duggan

Las Vegas Raiders

Head Coach: Klint Kubiak

Assistant Head Coach: Mike McCoy

Offensive Coordinator: Andrew Janocko

Defensive Coordinator: Rob Leonard

Miami Dolphins 2026

The watch is the Dolphins’ defensive line against the revamped Raiders offensive line in front of Kirk Cousins. Although in a “building phase” here is what we know about the Dolphins’ defensive line: Defensive Tackles: Kenneth Grant finished the season with 14 quarterback pressures, two sacks and 10 run stuffs over his final five games; Zach Sieler has amassed double-digit tackles for loss for three straight years; and Matthew Butler had career hughes in quarterback hits (2) and combined tackles (12) last season. Round it out with the defensive ends of Chop Robinson and Clelin Ferrell in a Hafley defensive scheme.

Haley’s defensive schemes in the past relied on an aggressive 4-3 front, allowing pass rushers to attack vertically. The goal is to let the defensive front “pin their ears back” and rush the passer aggressively. His defenses most often accomplish this by allowing the secondary to play a zone match single-high safety defense.

v. Cousins: Cousins has never been known as a mobile quarterback. He is reliant on a clean pocket, and his most glaring struggles appear when he is forced to move in the pocket.

Last season, the Raiders’ offensive line ranked 27th in pressure rate pass protection (32.3%) and 32nd by Pro Football Focus.

Las Vegas Raiders 2026

New defensive coordinator Leonard is transitioning the defense to a 3-4 scheme. The Raiders were aggressive buyers during free agency, acquiring defensive end Kwity Paye (to play alongside reunited Maxx Crosby) and linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker.

Leonard is not new to the organization. He was the Raiders’ defensive line coach under former defensive coordinator Patrick Graham (now with the Pittsburgh Steelers). Graham ran a 4-3. After talk of Leonard switching to a 3-4, the conversation has become a little more nuanced. Both Leonard and head coach Klint Kubiak have expressed that the plan is to rotate players around, but honestly, this defense is tailor-made for Maxx Crosby to have an outstanding year.

v.Malik Willis and the offensive line: Willis will be playing behind last season’s 29th-ranked offensive line and PFF’s 25th-ranked offensive line for 2026. The receiving corps is still a question mark, and depending solely on De’Von Achane seems futile.

SAFE PLAY: Raiders Defense and Crosby IDP

HIGH VARIANCE GPP: Willis + Achane OR Cousins + Brock Bowers +Ashton Jeanty

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5, 41.5

Cleveland Browns 2026

While this line has climbed a point (40.5 to 41.5), if preseason has taught us anything, it’s that the Cleveland Browns are still a team with quarterback issues and may have added defensive chaos without their former defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, and DPOY 2025, Myles Garrett.

This is the defensive wild card game for Week 1. In theory, the Browns’ defense should take a step backward. The move to first-time defensive coordinator, first-time play caller, Mike Rutenberg, who last season was the Atlanta Falcons’ defensive passing game coordinator, could be a step back for the Browns defense. But if you look past the Garrett glare and the 93.3 Pro Football Focus pass rush grade, the Browns were an average defense. They were 17th in rushing yards allowed per game (116.4), were 13th in points allowed per game (22.3), and in their last two seasons they ranked 30th and 22nd in takeaways per game.

So the Browns gain a new defensive coordinator, Jared Verse (who had an 82.2 PFF pass rush grade last season), Emmanuel McNeil-Warren via the 2026 NFL Draft, Quincy Williams and Daniel Thomas in free agency, while retaining Rookie Defensive Player of the Year, Carson Schwesinger. It’s not a bad haul.

Both Monken and Schwesinger have stressed the continuity of the defense even with the changes, with Monken stating in his introductory press conference, “(Players) can rest assured that we’re going to keep the same system. We’re still going to let them attack; we’re still going to let the play free. I can’t see any other way.”

So what does that mean? The Browns’ attacking four-man front will remain, but will it be as efficient especially in the first week?. Rutenberg seemingly has free rein in the secondary, and the number one priority is to elevate the takeaways.

v.Trevor Lawrence: last season, Lawrence was third in interceptable passes with 20 (1.2% rate), but the team was also first in dropped passes with 38. Lawrence was 32nd in completion percentage when under pressure (49%) and 17th in completion percentage when blitzed (63.4%).

Jacksonville Jaguars 2026

Last season, the Jaguars’ defense was low-key good. They ranked ninth in points per game allowed (20.2), third in rushing yards per attempt allowed (3.9), first in rushing yards allowed per game (85.6), and collected 31 takeaways, which led to a league-leading 110 points off the takeaways.

v.Browns’ offense: with new head coach, quarterback competition between Shedeur Sanders who ranked 42nd out of 43 quarterbacks last season per Pro Football Focus. On his 255 dropbacks, Sanders had seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions, 1400 yards and a 56.6% completion percentage. This is with the team credited with only three drops and Sanders was 20th in interceptable passes with 12 (1.5% rate). And Deshaun Watson who last played an NFL game in October 20,2024.

SAFE PLAY Jaguars defense

**The Jaguars do not intend on playing any of their starters during preseason. This could mean a shaky beginning for Lawrence and crew.

HIGH VARIANCE GPP: Browns starting quarterback + Harold Fannin Jr., +Browns defense ( I know seems counterintutive but that what makes it high variance)

Defense 2026

While we all know that offense is what moves the sticks, defense is what determines how far the stick is going to have to move to score.

Keep the defense in mind. And whe you need help will be here.

Also remember Friday Nights on YouTube, come see me and my cohost @FFAdjacent on the “In No Particular Order” podcast at 7pm mountain, 9 pm eastern, Aloha, till next time.