How to Know When a Bull Run Has Started

A crypto bull market is a sustained period when prices, liquidity and investor demand rise across a large part of the market. A few strong Bitcoin sessions are not enough to confirm one.

The clearest bull runs normally combine several signals: Bitcoin holding above key long-term levels, fresh capital entering the market, improving on-chain profitability and eventually broader participation from Ethereum and altcoins.

Bitcoin usually leads the move

Bitcoin remains the main reference point. A lasting move above major resistance and investor cost-basis levels is more meaningful than a brief price spike.

Glassnode has historically tracked measures such as Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis, realized profit and loss, and realized capitalization to judge whether fresh demand is strong enough to support a new expansion phase. Recent research has shown that sustained positive capital flows matter more than price alone.

Institutional demand has become another important signal. US spot Bitcoin ETFs can absorb large amounts of BTC when flows turn consistently positive. In May 2026, the funds recorded six straight weeks of inflows totaling about $3.4 billion, showing how quickly institutional demand can reinforce a rally.

Watch liquidity and altcoin participation

A healthy crypto bull run normally spreads beyond Bitcoin. Ethereum strengthens, trading volumes rise and investors gradually move into higher-risk assets.

Falling Bitcoin dominance can signal that capital is rotating into altcoins, although it should not be treated as proof of a bull market by itself. A genuine altcoin season usually requires broad outperformance rather than a handful of tokens rallying.

The traditional cycle also remains linked to Bitcoin’s supply schedule. The next halving is expected around April or May 2028, when the block reward will fall from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. Previous halvings have often preceded major bull markets, but timing has varied considerably.

Five signs a bull run is becoming real

Investors should look for several signals appearing together:

1. Bitcoin forms higher highs and higher lows over an extended period.
2. ETF and spot inflows stay positive, showing fresh capital rather than leveraged speculation.
3. Trading volumes increase alongside price.
4. On-chain profits improve without excessive long-term holder selling.
5. Altcoins begin participating, often accompanied by falling Bitcoin dominance.

No single metric can confirm a bull market. The strongest signal is alignment: rising prices supported by real capital inflows, improving on-chain data and broader market participation. When only price is moving, the rally is far easier to reverse.