What to know:
- BTC hits $1.3M if it captures 1/3 of the $80T store-of-value market.
- ETF inflows topped $50B and corporate treasuries are diversifying amid macro uncertainty.
- Would reshape liquidity and custody for investors, exchanges, and L2s, and force clearer regulation.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has made a very intriguing assumption by stating that Bitcoin would hit about $1.3 million per coin if it captures only a third of the global store-of-value market during the next 10 years.
This forecast positions Bitcoin not as a speculative asset, but as an asset that could compete, for example, with gold, offshore wealth, and reserve holdings.
Hougan’s Store-of-Value Thesis
Through Hougan’s model we can understand that the store-of-value markets are composed of gold, central bank reserves, and savings vehicles, amounting about $80 trillion. Capturing a third of that, one can imagine $26 trillion of that market would have gone to Bitcoin only if the coin managed to gain 33% market share.
If you divide that sum to the fixed supply of the 21 million coins and subtract those already lost which are not accounted, for by Glassnode, you get the final figure of Bitcoin price reaching $1.3 million. Bitwise, creators of BITB spot Bitcoin ETF, have said that scarcity leads the investors to allocate capital to assets.
Also Read: CLARITY Act Faces Senate Deadline as Bitwise Stays Bullish on Crypto
ETF Flows Reshape Markets
The thesis is timely as spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed over $50B in net inflows, as SoSoValue, from January 2024, meanwhile corporate treasuries observed by Arkham Intelligence are expanding beyond MicroStrategy.
Source: CrypotSlate
As U.S. debt tops $35T and central banks experiment with tokenized reserves, the market for non-sovereign assets rises. But volatility lack of SEC guidance, and the presence of a new contender, tokenized gold, are factors that can limit this trend.
Also Read: Bitwise NEAR ETF Reveals NRR Ticker as NEAR Price Rises
Bitwise Transforms Industry
For investors in Bitcoin exchanges custody institutions, and Layer 2 networks like Lightning and Stacks developers, this sort of adoption would be transformational as to how liquidity, standards for custodianship, and fee markets would be organized, among other developments.
It would also lead to increased pressure by industry participants for Bitcoin’s categorization by regulators as a legitimate asset to be owned in traditional portfolios.
Also Read: Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Dominates Clear Creek’s $15M Crypto Holdings
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