Bitcoin’s $80,000 level has emerged as a major threshold as the crypto asset attempts to break out of the current bear market. Several technical and on-chain measures are converging around this level.
At the same time, the traditional realized price has become less relevant because of the large amount of illiquid BTC supply, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.
$80K Breakout Test
In his latest post, Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s market capitalization has been on the rise. At the cycle peak, the figure even reached $1.75 trillion. Because coins bought more than 10 years ago are now largely considered illiquid, they represent a much smaller share of the market capitalization than Bitcoin purchased more recently. This makes it necessary to adjust the realized price by weighting it according to the amount of capital invested.
Using this capital-weighted approach, the analyst calculated a Bitcoin cost basis of approximately $79,600. That figure places the average invested capital near the $80,000 mark, which makes the level a significant barrier for the crypto asset at present.
Darkfost explained that this area more clearly identifies where the average invested capital reaches neutrality. A daily close above $80,000, followed by a weekly close above the same level, would represent a strong signal. Such a move would also return a large portion of BTC’s invested capital to profit.
Next Buying Opportunity
Meanwhile, Ali Martinez said that the crypto asset could be heading toward another buying opportunity if its current market structure follows the pattern seen during the 2022-2023 bottom. The analyst stated that Bitcoin broke above a descending resistance trendline on Thursday, similar to the move seen in early 2023, which has brought back the May 2026 high near $83,000 into focus.
This level could lead to a retracement before Bitcoin makes another move higher. URPD data reveals a major resistance zone between $83,307 and $84,569, where nearly 975,000 BTC were previously acquired. This concentration of supply could make it difficult for Bitcoin to push through the zone on its first attempt.
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Additionally, on-chain trader profit margins have climbed to 25%, a level that has often been followed by increased profit-taking and short-term corrections over the past year. Whales also appear to be taking profits, with roughly $88 million in gains already realized.
If selling pressure increases, he identified $76,996 to $78,258 as a crucial support range, where 843,000 BTC were previously traded. A break below that zone could shift attention to the next major demand area around $63,111, where roughly 925,000 BTC were traded.
Martinez said a pullback toward these support levels could present another opportunity before Bitcoin pushes towards $100,000.
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