SpaceX completed the largest U.S. initial public offering on record in June, but its first months as a public company have already highlighted a lesson visible across decades of stock-market history: raising the most money does not guarantee the best investment return.
The company priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising about $85.7 billion including the underwriters’ option. Shares briefly surged as high as $225.64, roughly 67% above the offer price, before surrendering most of those gains.
SpaceX closed at $141.50 on Aug. 28, leaving the stock less than 5% above its IPO price. That is a sharp contrast with the immediate enthusiasm surrounding its market debut, when its valuation quickly climbed above $2 trillion.
Walmart Built Its Return Slowly
The contrast with Walmart could hardly be larger.
Walmart sold just 300,000 shares at $16.50 each in October 1970, raising about $4.95 million. Since then, the retailer has completed 12 stock splits: eleven 2-for-1 splits and a 3-for-1 split in 2024. One original share consequently became 6,144 shares. Walmart confirms those figures in its official split history.
At Walmart’s Aug. 28 closing price of about $103.09, a hypothetical $1,000 invested at the IPO price would now represent roughly $38.4 million before dividends.
That slightly updates the $38.9 million estimate circulating earlier this week because Walmart shares have since moved lower. The stock recently suffered a steep post-earnings decline after U.S. comparable sales missed expectations, adding another reminder that even exceptional long-term compounders endure substantial setbacks. The latest Walmart selloff followed results that sent the shares down more than 8%.
Nvidia Shows the Faster Route
Nvidia offers a different model.
The chipmaker went public in January 1999 at $12 per share, according to its official IPO record. After six subsequent stock splits, including its 10-for-1 split in 2024, a hypothetical $1,000 IPO investment would today equal about 40,000 shares.
At Nvidia’s Aug. 28 close of $217.54, that position would be worth roughly $8.7 million.
Unlike Walmart, Nvidia compressed much of its wealth creation into a shorter period. Its latest earnings underline why: quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, with management guiding to about $108 billion for the next quarter.
For SpaceX investors, that may be the more useful framework. Its enormous valuation and record capital raise have made the listing historic, but the company’s long-term return will depend on revenue growth, margins and execution rather than the size of the IPO itself. Its subsequent slide below the offer price in July already demonstrated the valuation risk.
The broader lesson from Walmart and Nvidia is therefore less about stock splits than compounding. Market capitalization, explained more broadly in Coinpaper’s market cap guide, captures what investors are willing to pay today. It says far less about what a business can become over the next 20 or 50 years.
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