Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) stock is up by 30% in August 2026. The stock opened trading on August 3 at $94, and it has since gained to $127 by market close on August 28.
MSTR’s gains over the last 30 days are because of two factors: Bitcoin (BTC) price recovery and the company’s rising USD reserves.
As earlier reported by CoinGape, Strategy has reduced its net leverage to 0.1% after raising enough cash to settle nearly all its debts. But the cash is coming from MSTR stock sales, which an analyst now warns weakens Strategy’s thesis as a leveraged Bitcoin play.
Analyst Warns Strategy’s Stock Sales Weaken Leveraged Bitcoin Thesis
Analyst Jeff Dorman notes that Strategy’s market-to-net-asset value, which shows whether MSTR stock is trading at a discount or at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin holdings, will remain stuck at 1.
Dorman says this mNAV might never have a significant premium again as it did in the past because of Strategy’s ongoing stock sales that are diluting the company.
He says that if the mNAV does not grow, Strategy’s use case as “levered BTC” weakens considerably, adding that this lack of growth makes MSTR a “boring” stock to purchase.
“Assuming a constant mNAV, you get at most 20% more upside owning MSTR than you do owning BTC, and that assumes BTC doubles,” the analyst opined.
Dorman also noted that despite this outlook, he has since covered all his short positions on the MSTR stock after the outlook improved after the company increased its cash reserves.
Recently, Bitcoin critic and gold bull Peter Schiff suggested that the ongoing gains seen in MSTR stock could be coming from the closure of these short positions as traders are forced to purchase.
Key Levels to Watch in MSTR Stock Price
MSTR stock registered a strong uptrend between August 18 and August 27, with the price moving from $92 to $139. However, that uptrend stalled on August 28 when the stock dropped by 7.3% to close trading at $127.
If this decline continues, the crypto stock could drop to support at the 61.8% Fib of $117. However, if the sentiment in the broader crypto market flips bearish and Bitcoin price registers lower highs below $80,000, MSTR stock could drop to $104.
Conversely, the STRC stock is approaching the par value of $100 after it closed trading at $97 on August 28. If the stock attains its par value, it could be a bullish catalyst for MSTR stock because the company could begin raising more money to buy Bitcoin.
If Strategy share price begins to rise, the shares could test the psychological resistance of $140. Breaking this resistance could kickstart another bullish leg to the 161.8% Fib of $175.
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