Why Can Ukraine Not Hold Wartime Elections?

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On August 18, former Ukrainian Minister of Defence Mykhailo Fedorov posted a video address on YouTube where he condemned some unnamed Ukrainian officials for corruption, noting that this hurts Ukraine’s military efforts during Russia’s ongoing full-scale invasion. He also argued that Ukraine was facing a “systemic crisis of governance.” To address these issues, Fedorov argued that Ukraine should hold elections.

“Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia,” he said in his video address. “We must find a legal, safe, and realistic mechanism that will allow Ukraine to renew its full democratic process even in the conditions of a long war.”

Fedorov is not the only one who has called on Ukraine to hold elections during Russia’s ongoing full-scale invasion. Last year, then-Senior Advisor to the President of the United States Elon Musk wrote on X that Ukraine should “hold an election.” Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being a “dictator” who “refuses to have elections.” Even Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that Ukraine would need to lift martial law and hold elections, while also predicting that Zelenskyy would have “zero chances” of winning.

In response, the Ukrainian president has pushed back on these statements. While making public remarks on August 23, Zelenskyy said that elections would be a “huge risk” during Russia’s ongoing invasion. Furthermore, he said that elections would be a “tsunami for the country that will split Ukraine,” adding that elections would “destroy the country.”

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Zelenskyy is not alone in this sentiment. According to a survey published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology on August 5, 57% of Ukrainians believe that elections in Ukraine should only be held “after a final peace agreement and a complete end to the war.” In its survey data, KIIS showed that Ukrainians across most regions of the country also felt strongly that elections should be held only after the war ends. The same survey found that 55% of Ukrainians trust Zelenskyy.

Ukraine’s constitution also prohibits elections during martial law. Adopted on June 28, 1996, Article 83(4) of the constitution of Ukraine states that, “in the event that the term of authority of the Verkhovna Rada [Parliament] of Ukraine expires while martial law or a state of emergency is in effect, its authority is extended until the day of the first meeting of the first session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, elected after the cancellation of martial law or of the state of emergency.” Additionally, the Council of Europe found that elections cannot be held in Ukraine while martial law is in effect.

In the current case, Ukraine has been in a state of martial law since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Martial law has been extended by both Zelenskyy and the Verkhovna Rada throughout the war.

But even if Ukraine were to hold elections during Russia’s full-scale invasion, despite public opinion and Ukrainian legislation, doing so would pose logistical challenges and several questions. To date, Russia has seized around 20% of Ukrainian territory. The Atlantic Council estimates that millions of Ukrainians reside in the Russian-occupied regions of southern and eastern Ukraine. On this point, Radio Free Europe published a video on August 21 stating that, if Ukraine held elections, how would Ukrainian residents under Russian occupation vote? The video also pondered how members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the volunteer battalions would vote in Ukrainian elections. Both questions went unanswered in Radio Free Europe’s video.

There is also a concern for civilian safety. According to a Journal of Democracy report, Ukraine uses a paper-ballot voting process. In other words, holding an election would require Ukrainian citizens to gather in large groups at voting centers to cast paper ballots. But according to a United Nations report published on May 14, the Russian Federation has attacked residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The United Nations Children’s Fund also reported on August 25 that Russian attacks on Ukraine have hit schools and hospitals. A UN report on August 5 added that Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians have intensified as the war has progressed.

Given these in-person security risks, some observers have proposed that Ukraine hold elections online. But given Ukraine’s multi-year history of being subjected to Russian cyberattacks, a Journal of Democracy report states that holding Ukrainian elections electronically during the war would be problematic, as they would be susceptible to cyberattacks.

A Radio Free Europe video also noted that Ukrainians displaced by the war would need to vote. The U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants has found that, since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, nearly 7 million “refugees from Ukraine have been registered around the world.” A Foreign Policy article adds that many displaced Ukrainians would need to update their voter registrations.

Ukraine is not the only country to have faced questions about holding elections during wartime. In fact, several other countries have previously not held elections during major periods of crisis in their histories.

During the First and Second World Wars, Canada delayed its parliamentary elections. This was despite the fact that Canada did not see any wartime action on its own territory during either world war.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom postponed its general elections in 1940 due to the Second World War. Instead, it opted to maintain its wartime coalition government. A general election was not held until 1945, and only after a military victory over Germany had been declared.

Elsewhere in Europe, France did not hold elections under German occupation during the Second World War. Similarly, Poland, Norway, and the Netherlands did not hold elections under German occupation. Like the UK, these countries would hold their elections after Germany’s defeat.

Overall, Fedorov’s comments about holding elections in Ukraine despite Russia’s ongoing invasion have renewed the discussions about allowing Ukrainian citizens to vote during the war. Ukrainian legislation prohibits elections from being held while martial law is in effect. Furthermore, news organizations such as Radio Free Europe and Foreign Policy note that there would be logistical challenges for holding elections in Ukraine while the war continues.

Finally, a majority of Ukrainians believe that elections can only be held in their country after the fighting has ended and the war is over. Any other circumstance, in their opinion, prevents their country from holding this democratic process.

No one is certain when and how Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will end. But until then, Ukrainians have expressed that they do not want elections to be held. Instead, the majority of Ukrainians have said that their country’s priority should be ending the war. Only then do they believe that elections can be held.



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