- Liron Shapira puts a 50% confidence claim on the possibility of BTC crashing by over 50% within 2 years.
- Vitalik Buterin’s response highlights that roughly 90% of his net worth is already in crypto.
Host of the Doom Debates podcast, Liron Shapira, put a 50% confidence claim on the table. BTC prices could crash more than 50% in the next two years because AI will undermine what people believe are Bitcoin’s security guarantees. Shapira is not necessarily predicting a broken hash function; he is predicting a loss of confidence.
Also, in markets, perception can move price long before any actual exploit occurs. Significantly, Vitalik Buterin’s response was direct. He took the opposite side and noted that with roughly 90% of his net worth in crypto, he’s effectively already living that bet.
How Buterin Splits the Risk?
Buterin’s counterargument separates Bitcoin’s threat surface into two distinct categories. The first covers client software bugs, mining pool infrastructure, and network-layer vulnerabilities, all of which can be addressed through ordinary software upgrades without touching Bitcoin’s core rules.
AI-assisted attackers finding flaws in node software or wallet code fall into this bucket. So does any attack on mining pool systems or internet infrastructure. Developers and node operators can patch these. No social consensus required.
The second category is a genuine break of SHA-256 or proof-of-work itself. Buterin puts the probability of that in the tiny bucket, and notes that any fix would require a hard fork and broad consensus.
His broader argument is that cryptography keeps finding new footing as old assumptions erode. Hard problems are abundant. In a separate thread, he pointed to the pace of development in SNARKs and fully homomorphic encryption in 2026 specifically as evidence that defenders are not standing still.
He also shared a non-consensus view on the long-term future of cryptography: a 33% chance that all three of what he calls the Egyptian God Protocols (SNARK, FHE, iO) could eventually be implemented with near-zero overhead, and a 60% chance they reach single-digit overhead. He expects SNARKs with single-digit overhead by the end of the decade.
Moreover, the largest asset, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently trading at $79,370. The 24-hour session is ranging between $79,080 and $80,493, with its volume settled at $22.85 billion.
Shapira’s risk is real but market-psychology driven; a 50% crash needs fear, not a broken algorithm. In addition, Vitalik Buterin’s engineering framework suggests the actual cryptographic risk is far lower than the narrative risk.
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