Key Takeaways
- CEO John Ternus will lead his inaugural iPhone presentation on Wednesday, showcasing Apple’s debut foldable iPhone with an anticipated price exceeding $2,000
- Shares of AAPL ended Tuesday’s session down 1.17% at $316.22 before the highly anticipated event
- Two decades of market data reveals AAPL typically drops 0.3% during iPhone unveilings but rebounds with 0.5% gains the next trading day
- Bank of America upholds its Buy recommendation with a $380 target price; KeyBanc maintains an Underweight stance at $250
- Production estimates for iPhone 18 stand at approximately 80 million units, a decrease from last year’s 91 million, due to the absence of a standard base model
Apple’s “Surprise and Shine” presentation launches Wednesday at 1 p.m. Eastern Time, marking a pivotal moment as John Ternus makes his debut appearance as chief executive.
Shares of AAPL settled at $316.22 during Tuesday’s regular trading hours, representing a 1.17% decline, while adding a modest 0.04% in extended trading. The tech giant’s stock has climbed 16.68% since January and surged 34.93% over the trailing twelve months.
Apple Inc., AAPL
Ternus assumed the CEO role from Tim Cook on September 1. Wednesday’s showcase represents his inaugural major appearance at the helm of Apple.
The centerpiece announcement is anticipated to be Apple’s maiden foldable iPhone. According to Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman, the handset will adopt a passport-style form factor reminiscent of Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold series. Pricing is projected to surpass $2,000, positioning it above Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8, which retails from $1,899.
Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan anticipates Pro lineup price hikes ranging from $150 to $200, attributed to elevated memory and storage expenses. Mohan indicates investor sentiment will hinge on actual pricing adjustments, Siri AI integration, and executive commentary regarding foldable device demand.
Analysts Remain Divided
BofA reaffirmed its Buy designation alongside a $380 price objective, suggesting approximately 19% potential appreciation from Tuesday’s closing figure. KeyBanc retains its Underweight assessment with a $250 projection, cautioning that widespread price escalations could trigger “sticker shock” and diminished unit sales.
Among 29 Wall Street analysts, AAPL holds a consensus Buy recommendation with a mean price objective of $335, representing roughly 5.4% upside from present levels, per Benzinga data.
KeyBanc forecasts total iPhone 18 manufacturing volumes near 80 million devices through early fiscal 2027, declining from approximately 91 million in the prior year. The firm anticipates elevated pricing and premium product positioning will partially counterbalance reduced volumes.
The standard iPhone 18 version is not slated for Wednesday’s announcement. MacRumors, referencing Economic Daily News, suggests it may arrive early next year alongside the iPhone 18e and second-generation iPhone Air.
Historical Trends Offer Insights
Analysis spanning nearly twenty years from Bluekurtic Market Insights indicates AAPL typically experiences a 0.3% decline during iPhone launch presentations, with a median decrease of 0.6%. The stock has finished positive on announcement day in only one-third of 24 events dating back to 2007.
The subsequent trading session, however, presents a contrasting narrative. Apple has recorded an average 0.5% increase the day following launch events, closing higher in 15 of 24 releases.
The S&P 500 advanced the day after iPhone launches 79.2% of the time, while the Nasdaq 100 posted gains 75% of occasions.
Apart from smartphones, Apple is projected to introduce the Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4, featuring enhanced internal components and software refinements.
Apple’s iPhone division generated $54.25 billion during Q3, climbing nearly 22% year-over-year, representing approximately half of the company’s $109.4 billion in aggregate net sales. CFO Kevan Parekh projected total revenue expansion of 9% to 11% for the September quarter.
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