Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has warned that the artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditures (CAPEX) boom may be leading up to a major reversal or even a reversal at the systemic level. He discussed the issue on the Unchained podcast, and the conversation took place on 22 August 2026.
Arthur Hayes believed that once the market starts to doubt AI infrastructure expenditures’ ROI, the financial cycle will go down and lead to a financial crisis around 2028 that will be even more severe than the crisis of 2008.
AI Boom Mirrors Credit Cycle
Governments, in Arthur Hayes’ view, will step in with massive monetization efforts to steady the markets and avert system-wide contagion. Arthur Hayes framed the AI boom as a typical credit cycle fueled by hyperscalers, chipmakers, and venture-backed start-ups.
Some of the companies that have promised to build hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of data centres and GPUs are even financing the expenditures through debt and equity markets, which have been pricing in the exponential rise in human productivity brought about by AI.
Source: Bloomberg.com
When the money made through AI is less than the money spent, the lenders could stop lending, and asset prices would change very fast, mainly stocks. This opinion is consistent with his idea that fiat liquidity cycles have a larger effect on the performance of crypto than sector-specific innovation in isolation.
Also Read: Arthur Hayes Targets $126,000 Bitcoin Price as US Debt Tops $40 Trillion
AI Leverage Impacts Crypto
It is a big thing in the cryptocurrency space that AI markets leverage. It’s not surprising then that crypto and AI markets are closely connected. Because the availability of liquidity is the commonality, both sectors, whether AI or crypto, have similar availability of leveraged products and services; e.g., derivatives and futures are quite similar.
That’s why, for example, institutional investors, hedge funds, exchanges, and stablecoin issuers operate across both ecosystems simultaneously. When credit conditions tighten, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even high-beta altcoins will likely experience pressure before other assets.
But, based on Arthur Hayes, there is a sort of second-order effect that is going to take place later. Arthur Hayes took examples from 2008 and 2020 to support his arguments, and pointed out that if there was a crisis, banks would be very likely to react by printing lots of money. This, in his view, is a reason for seeing long-term potential in Bitcoin, as it is a scarce asset outside traditional banking and a safeguard against currency depreciation.
Also Read: BitMEX Sale Fails as Buyers Reject $1 Billion Valuation Amid Decline
Investors Face Rising Risks
Fundamentally, as Arthur Hayes says, it’s hard to tell whether the investors and the builders will suffer or profit from this scenario. For investors and institutions, a 2028 scenario will increase their anxiety since Bitcoin volatility has spiked recently, ETFs have been underperforming, and SoSoValues’ tracking tool is not being effective.
It is very likely that it will not be sufficient for collaterals for centralized exchanges and lending platforms, as their collateral needs will grow with the increasing size and complexity of the underlying assets and loans.
Also Read: Germany Crypto Tax Plan Targets 25% Rate on New Crypto Gains
Funding Winter Opportunity
Cryptocurrencies and blockchain developers might face more difficulties because of the funding winter, but it could also help the decentralized infrastructure and protocols like Bittensor that rely on blockchain and AI technologies. If venture capital investment in artificial intelligence equities is overvalued, some capital will likely migrate from the tech sector back to the crypto scene.
Source: Bombay Chamber
From the data analysis provided by CoinShares and Glassnode, it was found that cryptocurrencies usually come to their lows sooner than other types of assets (e.g., equities) before liquidity comes in. This means that the first wave of liquidity, coming into the asset class after a period of scarcity, will favor Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at the expense of equities. That means such a scenario will be favorable not just for Bitcoin but for the entire crypto ecosystem if global allocators have sufficient patience to hold it.
Also Read: Block Crypto Bank Seeks OCC Approval for Bitcoin and Stablecoin Custody
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