The XRP market has seen a sharp narrowing of its price range, a development that traditionally precedes a major move in the asset. According to technical analysis shared by Ali Martinez on X, a classic descending triangle has formed on the token’s hourly chart.
The price has been squeezed into a narrow $1.34–$1.36 range and has moved close to the apex of the pattern. The coin has almost no room left to maneuver, meaning a breakout from the consolidation is expected in the coming days.
As part of the longer-term “XRP to $2” roadmap, this technical setup opens up a clear route for a local breakout. If buyers hold their positions, the nearest target will be $1.60, representing a potential 20% gain from current levels.
What is happening on the XRP chart and beyond
The near-term fate of this move depends on three specific levels on the chart. The first is the $1.31–$1.35 support zone, where limit-buy demand is still holding the line. However, a drop below $1.31 would completely invalidate the bullish scenario.
The second level is local resistance at $1.38. An hourly candle close above it would confirm the initial breakout of the descending trendline that has been in place since late August.
The final barrier is the psychological $1.40 level. XRP holding above this mark would definitively confirm a breakout from the triangle and open a direct path toward the $1.60 target, with the possibility of testing the August high of $1.66.
This technical consolidation coincides with an important regulatory event. A procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is scheduled for September 15 in the U.S. Senate. The bill is intended to define the legal status of digital assets and place XRP in the category of digital commodities under CFTC oversight.
Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi estimate the probability of the initiative succeeding by the end of the year at only 16%–24%. A failed vote or another delay would bring wait-and-see sentiment back among funds, potentially triggering a decline in XRP toward the $1 level.
Meanwhile, overall crypto market liquidity remains constrained by the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), which stands at 5.4%, prompting investors to also price in a cautious Federal Reserve decision at its September 16 meeting. The direction of the breakout from the current triangle will determine XRP’s short-term trend for the entire second half of September.
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