what the 94% loss figure means

BTCC
Binance


In decentralized finance, “audited” is often presented as a verdict on an entire project. In practice, an audit usually covers named code, components and versions at a particular point in time. Anything added, excluded or operated around that boundary may carry a different level of assurance.

A new preprint puts a number on that gap. Researchers affiliated with security company ack3 and the Czech Technical University in Prague examined 135 reported incidents from the first half of 2026, with $939.86 million in attributed losses. They found identifiable public pre-incident audits for 68 incidents.

Within that 68-incident subset, the authors classified 46 attack paths as outside every audit scope they could identify, 20 as inside at least one scope and two as unresolved. The outside-scope group represented 67.6% of the incidents but 94.4% of their reported losses.

That striking percentage is not an estimate of audit effectiveness or proof that an audit’s boundaries caused a loss. It describes the distribution of losses in a selected set of reported incidents. Two large cases also dominate it: after excluding $292 million at Kelp DAO and $285 million at Drift Protocol, the outside-scope share falls to 72.1% of losses in the same audited-incident subset.

Phemex

Even with those limits, the study exposes a basic assurance problem. A project may truthfully say it was audited while leaving users unable to tell whether the live system, the path holding their funds and the controls around it were reviewed.

Infographic showing 68 incidents with identifiable public pre-incident audits: 46 outside identified scope, 20 inside at least one scope and two unresolved; outside-scope incidents represented 94.4% of reported losses, or 72.1% after removing two dominant outliers.Infographic showing 68 incidents with identifiable public pre-incident audits: 46 outside identified scope, 20 inside at least one scope and two unresolved; outside-scope incidents represented 94.4% of reported losses, or 72.1% after removing two dominant outliers.

What the data actually shows

The ack3 dataset covers incidents from Jan. 1 through June 29. Its authors graded 122 as confirmed and 13 as likely. Of the full set, 35 had no identified audit and 32 had an unknown audit history, so neither group appears in the 68-incident scope calculation.

For that 68-incident group, outside-scope incidents accounted for $680.97 million of $721.24 million in reported losses, producing the 94.4% figure. Removing Kelp DAO and Drift Protocol left $103.97 million of $144.24 million outside scope, or 72.1%. The machine-readable ledger reproduces the bucket counts and loss sums.

The inside-or-outside labels remain the researchers’ judgments about public evidence. They searched project and auditor archives, located pre-incident reports and compared the eventual attack paths with reviewed code, versions and exclusions. The work is a six-page preprint produced with the dataset publisher, and two authors are affiliated with ack3, which sells security reviews.

The study also lacks an unexploited comparison group and a measure of how long each system was exposed. It cannot establish whether audited protocols are safer overall, estimate incident probability or show that falling outside scope caused each loss. Undisclosed audits and private incidents may be missing, while reported loss figures are not perfectly comparable.

The study therefore supports a limited conclusion: audit history and audit scope are different variables. A reviewed smart contract does not automatically confer the same assurance on an upgrade, privileged key, front end, relayer, oracle, cloud service or incident-response process.

Related Reading

Why crypto ‘audited’ badges are giving investors a dangerous false sense of security

Two incidents from August illustrate that distinction in different ways. ICON Network provides a direct example of reviewed code failing at the boundary between two checks. The August aelf incident provides a contrasting case because the available audit evidence cannot yet be tied to its reported runtime path.

In ICON Network’s Aug. 27 replay exploit, two parts of a withdrawal path interpreted the same message differently.

According to the ICON Foundation’s Aug. 30 postmortem, a migration contract used the high bits of a withdrawal message’s serial number to decide whether it was unique. The cryptographic signature covered only the low 256 bits. By changing the unsigned high bits, an attacker resubmitted two legitimately signed withdrawal messages 1,492 times over about 20 minutes. ICON said 1,490 calls succeeded.

The audited boundary ICON missed

The replays released 119.866 million ICX and 531,600 bnUSD. At the time of the postmortem, ICON put the confirmed net loss at about 150.2 ETH plus 31,204 USDC. It said 531,600 bnUSD and 1.366 million SODA had been recovered and that user deposits, balances and positions were not affected.