Bull Market Confirmed if Bitcoin Breaks $81,700, CryptoQuant Says

Bitcoin has recovered sharply over the past month, but CryptoQuant says the rally still faces a key test before the market can call it the start of a new bull cycle.

According to the analysis, the level to watch is $81,700, where Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average currently sits. 

According to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, a sustained close above that level has historically marked the point at which Bitcoin’s bull markets become established. 

Until then, the cryptocurrency remains caught between a strong recovery and a market that has yet to fully confirm a change in trend.

Bitcoin gains 23.9% in a month, what is stopping BTC from breaking higher?

Bitcoin was trading around $77,915 at the time of writing, leaving it roughly $3,800 below CryptoQuant’s threshold. 

Notably, BTC has gained about 23.9% over the past 30 days after a 24% rally over two weeks, although the recent advance has stalled between roughly $76,000 and $82,000. 

 

Moreno said the current structure remains constructive, but a heavy supply zone between $77,100 and $80,200 is standing directly in the way. 

CryptoQuant’s on-chain data shows that long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC around that range during 2026, making it the nearest major supply resistance above the current price.

That selling pressure matters because Bitcoin has already struggled to turn its recent momentum into a clean breakout. 

CryptoQuant data also showed an elevated Exchange Whale Ratio of 0.93 in one recent reading, indicating that large wallets accounted for a high share of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges. 

The measure covers only a one-hour period, so it represents a snapshot rather than proof of a sustained selling trend.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index. Source: CryptoQuant

Retail traders have been more willing to chase the move, with the Fear and Greed Index reaching 66, while the taker buy/sell ratio stood at 1.12, suggesting buyers were willing to pay up for positions.

Bitcoin’s rally gains momentum as trading volumes surge, but demand lags

A negative Coinbase Premium showed Bitcoin trading at a discount on the major US exchange, suggesting limited US institutional participation. 

CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain also warned that stretched momentum and derivatives positioning could increase the risk of a long squeeze, forcing leveraged traders to close positions as prices fall.

Bitcoin: The Illusion of Greed and Exit Liquidity

“With Price Momentum already exhausted at level 20 and the FEI Score locked in a zone of absolute noise (99.53%), the stage is set for a Long Squeeze.” – By @GugaOnChain 

Read more ⤵️https://t.co/r79Xyk6lfL pic.twitter.com/IgRDZK1tRv

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 10, 2026

Still, the recovery has been accompanied by a broad return of market activity. 

CryptoQuant data showed spot trading volume reached about $75 billion on Aug. 21, its highest level since February, while perpetual futures volume climbed to roughly $336 billion, the highest since March.

By Aug. 25, 30-day spot volume had surged 667% on Gate and 429% on Coinbase, while Binance and Bybit also recorded strong growth. Perpetual futures activity rose 202% on Binance and 184% on Bybit.

However, CryptoQuant warned that the rally still lacks sustained spot demand, with derivatives continuing to play a major role in price movements.

Can Bitcoin push higher as inflation and Fed expectations threaten the rally?

For Bitcoin to confirm the bullish case, the next hurdle therefore extends beyond $81,700. 

CryptoQuant places another resistance level at $83,600 using its 3x Metcalfe band, a valuation model based on network activity. 

The same model had placed the band around $138,000 when Bitcoin reached its $126,000 all-time high in October 2025.

Source: CryptoQuant 

Above that, $88,700 represents another potential area of selling pressure. The level corresponds with the upper band of CryptoQuant’s trader-realized price model, which tracks the average price paid by active traders. 

Moreno said this upper band has historically been associated with profit-taking.

The downside levels are also clearly defined, as Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average sits around $70,000, while another on-chain support zone lies between $62,000 and $65,000. 

CryptoQuant estimates that long-term holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC in that lower range during 2026.

Macro conditions could also influence whether Bitcoin can clear the resistance. Friday’s US inflation report showed consumer prices rising 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier, in line with expectations. 

Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% forecast, although the annual core rate eased to 2.4%.

Source: CME FedWatch tool

The data increased expectations for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, with CME FedWatch putting the probability at about 86.5% on Friday. 

Higher-rate expectations can affect liquidity and investor appetite for risk assets, adding another variable to Bitcoin’s attempt to break higher.