XRP Rallies 9.8% on CLARITY Hopes; Prediction Markets Aren’t Buying It

The Numbers

XRP spent Sunday pinned near $1.34, but by Monday afternoon it was floating around $1.49, up 9.8% for the day. Since then, the token has cooled a bit, trading at $1.41. The timing was hard to miss as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse spent the same afternoon leaning on lawmakers directly, noting:

“Senate, the world is watching and voters are watching. Now is the time to vote yes.”

The broader price action did not come along for the ride as bitcoin’s price sat close to $77,600, roughly flat on the day, putting the move squarely in XRP-specific territory. In terms of where the leverage came from, derivatives traders were not spectators.

To this point, open interest (à la the total number of outstanding futures contracts) on Binance’s XRPUSDT perpetual rose from 292.1 million XRP early on Sept. 13 to 313.7 million XRP by 21:00 UTC on Sept. 14. In dollar terms, that is roughly $398 million to $459 million. It has since eased to 305.7 million XRP (about $432.5 million).

Funding rates, or the periodic payments between long and short traders that keep perpetual futures tethered to spot prices, tell the same story. They sat slightly negative on Sept. 13, meaning shorts were paying longs, then flipped to 0.01% within eight hours. In fact, between 67% and 71% of Binance accounts held long positions throughout the run.

Onchain analyst CW8900 said net buying was rising across both futures and spot markets, while noting that a large whale sell wall still sits at $1.60.

South Korean demand added fuel to the fire, with Upbit logging about 11.2 trillion won, roughly $8 billion, in weekly volume, and XRP ranked as the most actively traded asset ahead of bitcoin.

Does the Vote Justify the Bet?

Tuesday’s vote does not pass anything; instead, a cloture on the motion to proceed needs 60 votes just to open debate, which can then run for up to 30 hours before a simple-majority final vote.

Prediction markets are far less excited than XRP traders, given Polymarket’s contract on the CLARITY Act slid to 18% from roughly 34% yesterday. A separate Polymarket contract on more than 60 senators voting for the bill sat at 31.5%.

Meanwhile, spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have kept absorbing supply regardless of the headlines, taking in $18.98 million during the holiday-shortened Sept. 8-11 week, and cumulative inflows passing $1.70 billion, with the funds holding about 1.07 billion XRP, or roughly 1.7% of circulating supply.

The Calendar Is Crowded

In addition to the CLARITY vote, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is also set to meet Sept. 15-16, with its rate decision and fresh economic projections due Wednesday. That stacks a regulatory verdict and a macro verdict inside roughly 24 hours.

XRP traders also carry a recent memory of how fast leveraged rallies unwind as the token ran from $0.99 on Aug. 18 to $1.66 on Aug. 22 before sliding back. It was still down 27.5% over the eight months leading up to the start of Sept.