Is Micron (MU) Stock a Buy Before September 30 Earnings?

TLDR

• Micron reports fiscal Q4 FY26 earnings on September 30, with the options market pricing in an 11% move in either direction
• MU stock has rallied 225% year-to-date, driven by AI demand for memory chips and tight supply
• Wall Street expects Q4 revenue of $50.42 billion, up over 345% year-over-year, with EPS of $31.14
• Goldman Sachs holds a Hold rating with a $1,100 price target; TD Cowen is more bullish with a Buy and $1,600 target
• Micron has signed around $22 billion in client agreements, including take-or-pay contracts

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Micron Technology (MU) heads into its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on September 30 with the options market expecting a move of roughly 11% in either direction. That implied swing sits above Micron’s four-quarter average post-earnings move of about 8.14%, which has ranged from 2.82% to 15.74%.

Micron Technology, Inc., MU

MU stock is trading around $925 at the time of writing. The stock has surged 225% year-to-date, fueled by AI-driven demand for memory and constrained supply pushing prices higher.

Wall Street consensus calls for Q4 FY26 revenue of $50.42 billion, a jump of more than 345% from the year-ago quarter. EPS is expected to hit $31.14, compared to $3.03 a year earlier.

For context, Micron’s Q3 results already showed how dramatic the shift has been. Revenue came in at $41.46 billion, up from $9.30 billion a year prior. Gross margin expanded to 84.9% from 39%. Adjusted EPS was $25.11.

Management guided Q4 revenue at approximately $50 billion with a gross margin of about 86%, putting the company roughly in line with what analysts are already modeling.

What Analysts Are Watching

Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider kept his Hold rating and $1,100 price target heading into earnings. He expects a “strong quarter” with revenue of $51.9 billion, EPS of $32.54, and a gross margin of 87.3%. He also expects Micron to guide low-teens quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for Q1 FY27. Despite the bullish near-term view, he sees the risk-reward as balanced.

TD Cowen’s Krish Sankar is more upbeat. He holds a Buy rating with a $1,600 price target. Sankar argues Micron is about 80% through its gross-margin expansion cycle but only mid-cycle on demand, especially from AI. He expects Q1 FY27 EPS guidance of around $37, ahead of the Street’s $35 estimate.

Key Things Investors Will Focus On

Beyond the headline numbers, investors will be watching management commentary on pricing trends, supply dynamics, and AI infrastructure spending. Any signs of softness in demand or pricing pressure could dampen sentiment.

Micron has signed roughly $22 billion in client agreements, including take-or-pay contracts that offer clearer demand visibility. Details on any new strategic customer agreements will also be on watch.

The broader question investors are asking: is Micron’s growth a structural shift driven by AI, or another memory cycle that will eventually fade?

Wall Street’s overall view leans firmly in one direction. Micron carries a Strong Buy consensus rating from 29 Buy ratings and just one Hold. The average price target of $1,563.93 implies around 69% upside from current levels.

Earnings are set for September 30.