Nucor (NUE) Stock Drops 5% as Earnings Guidance Disappoints Wall Street

TLDR

• Nucor stock fell over 5% after Q3 2026 earnings guidance of $5.55 to $5.65 per diluted share came in below the Wall Street consensus of $5.99
• Steel Dynamics also dropped after issuing below-consensus Q3 guidance of $5.34 to $5.38 per share
• Two one-time boosts from Q2 won’t repeat in Q3: a $61M Helion valuation gain and ~$130M in raw material refunds
• Berkshire Hathaway reduced its NUE stake during Q2 2026
• Analysts view the guidance as conservative, with Q4 expected to benefit from pricing lags and tighter steel demand

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Nucor stock fell more than 5% on Friday after the Charlotte-based steelmaker’s Q3 2026 earnings guidance landed below what Wall Street was expecting. The stock hit $255.16 in after-hours trade, down from a session high of $268.08, though it remains well above its 52-week low of $131.32.

Nucor Corporation, NUE

The company projected net earnings of $5.55 to $5.65 per diluted share for the quarter ending October 3, 2026. Analysts had expected $5.99 per diluted share. That gap was enough to send the stock lower despite the guidance still representing a big jump from the $2.63 earned in Q3 2025.

📢 𝗝𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗜𝗡: $NUE Nucor Guides Q3 EPS to $5.55–$5.65, Above Q2 Earnings

👉 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

➤ 𝗡𝘂𝗰𝗼𝗿 expects Q3 diluted EPS between $𝟱.𝟱𝟱 and $𝟱.𝟲𝟱.

➤ Q2 diluted EPS was $𝟱.𝟬𝟰, with adjusted EPS of $𝟰.𝟴𝟰.

➤ Year-ago Q3 earnings were…

— Hardik Shah (@AIStockSavvy) September 17, 2026

Steel Dynamics fell alongside Nucor, dropping 2.1% to $240.21 in premarket trading. The company guided for Q3 earnings of $5.34 to $5.38 per share, also short of consensus estimates. Cleveland-Cliffs slipped 0.2% to $12.74.

One-Time Items Won’t Repeat

A big part of the concern is what’s missing from Q3. In Q2, Nucor benefited from a $61 million non-cash gain tied to the increased valuation of its investment in fusion energy company Helion, and roughly $130 million in prior-period raw material procurement refunds that lowered costs. Neither will repeat this quarter.

Nucor’s raw materials segment is also expected to post lower earnings in Q3 due to weaker pricing and shipments. That’s a drag, even as the steel mills and steel products segments are projected to grow sequentially.

Steel Dynamics gave a more upbeat picture on its core business. It expects profits from its steel operations segment to be meaningfully higher quarter-over-quarter, driven by metal margin expansion, higher average selling prices, and lower scrap costs. Shipments are also expected to increase.

Steel Prices Still Running Hot

Despite the guidance misses, the broader steel market is in solid shape. U.S. benchmark steel prices have risen nearly 30% this year to $1,237 per ton as of Thursday, and are up 49% over the past 12 months. That tailwind has been a major driver for both stocks.

Nucor stock is up 63% year-to-date through Thursday’s close. Steel Dynamics has gained 45% over the same period.

Analysts largely viewed the Q3 guidance as conservative rather than alarming. The fourth quarter is expected to benefit from pricing lags and tightening steel demand, which could improve margins.

Tariffs and potential price reversals remain risks for the sector, analysts noted.

Berkshire Hathaway reduced its NUE position during Q2 2026, a move that had already raised some eyebrows among investors watching institutional flows in the steel space.

At $255.16, Nucor is still well below its 52-week high of $280.11, but the underlying business fundamentals, particularly the strong steel price environment, remain intact heading into the second half of the year.