DraftKings shares sank 7.6% Thursday to $22.47, extending its losing streak to three sessions while new Needham data showed Kalshi with a commanding lead in NFL Week 1 prediction-market volume.
The weakness developed during regular trading, not before the open. DraftKings was little changed at $24.38 at 9:29:59 a.m. ET, versus Wednesday’s $24.33 close, before sliding through Thursday’s session; Flutter also fell 5.2%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.7%.
Kalshi’s NFL Lead Raises Competitive Pressure
Needham’s exchange-level analysis of NFL Week 1 showed $14.6 billion of sports-and-parlay prediction-market volume across eight exchanges, matching the first 14 weeks of last NFL season combined. Kalshi accounted for 76% of that volume, while DraftKings’ DKeX exchange accounted for around 3% of both total volume and Needham’s estimated consumer-equivalent handle.
That comparison comes with an important qualification. Needham said exchange data can overstate Kalshi and Polymarket because other operators route activity through their exchanges, while understating DraftKings because it distributes volume across multiple exchanges. The firm expects DraftKings to concentrate more activity on DKeX over time.
The exchange-share data also has a current counterpoint. Stifel’s Jeffrey Stantial reiterated a Buy rating Thursday while emphasizing DraftKings’ parlay capabilities. Stifel said CFTC-regulated single-wager sports volume fell 30% month over month in August to $18.6 billion, while “combo” volume—effectively sports parlays—rose 22% to $18.8 billion. The firm argued that DraftKings and Flutter can compete for market-making flow using their pricing and correlation models and balance-sheet capacity, while cautioning that notional exchange volume can exaggerate parlay activity relative to conventional handle.
Meanwhile, the regulatory environment for prediction markets continued to evolve Thursday. In a new no-action position for passive software providers, CFTC staff said it would not recommend enforcement over introducing-broker or associated-person registration solely for qualifying software that facilitates trading through registered intermediaries and designated contract markets.
The regulatory picture is not one-directional. A day earlier, the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals blocked Kalshi from offering sports-event contracts on two California tribal lands, finding the tribes were likely to prevail on claims involving federal Indian gaming law and tribal ordinances. The case underscores that prediction markets are expanding while their regulatory boundaries remain contested.
DraftKings’ Prediction Push Meets a Profitability Test
DraftKings entered football season already committing substantial resources to Predictions. In its second-quarter results, the company said revenue fell 5% year over year to $1.443 billion, mainly because of customer-friendly sports outcomes and greater promotional reinvestment in Sportsbook and Predictions.
Management nevertheless maintained 2026 revenue guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $700 million to $900 million, while saying the core business remained on track for roughly $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA.
The stock initially rallied after those results. DraftKings released them after the Aug. 6 close of $22.17, and shares jumped 8.4% to $24.03 on Aug. 7. DraftKings shares then climbed to $26.14 by Aug. 14.
That recovery then encountered another company-specific development. On Aug. 17, DraftKings launched a proposed $600 million term loan B and a new $750 million revolving credit facility, with term-loan proceeds intended partly to repurchase convertible notes due in 2028. Shares fell 2.2% in morning trading following the announcement and closed 3.2% lower at $25.30; they dropped another 5.0% the next session to $24.04. The company later closed an upsized $700 million term loan alongside the $750 million revolver.
The earnings-window analyst response was mixed. Benchmark raised its price target to $30 from $29 while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating, while JPMorgan cut its target to $33 from $34, Guggenheim to $33 from $35, and Barclays to $34 from $35, with all three retaining their positive ratings.
Guggenheim said its reduction followed updated estimates incorporating DraftKings’ second-quarter results and reaffirmed its 2026 outlook. Citi subsequently moved in the other direction, raising its target to $32 from $30 while keeping ‘Buy’ and arguing that prediction markets could expand DraftKings’ addressable market.
Thursday’s $22.47 finish leaves DraftKings only about 1.4% above its Aug. 6 pre-earnings close, but about 14.0% below its Aug. 14 rebound close of $26.14, after three consecutive losing sessions.
DKNGx Extends DraftKings Exposure Beyond the Nasdaq Session
Kraken lists tokenized DraftKings as DKNGx for eligible clients in supported markets. Kraken says each DKNGx token is backed 1:1 by DraftKings shares held by a third-party custodian, but owning the token does not constitute direct ownership of the underlying DKNG share or provide shareholder rights.
Kraken’s broader xStocks service supports 24/5 trading, allowing tokenized exposure outside traditional U.S. equity hours. That token-market activity remains distinct from Nasdaq trading and should not be treated as a prediction of DraftKings’ next regular-session opening price.
DraftKings’ official investor calendar currently shows its Aug. 7 Q2 earnings call as the latest listed event, so the company has not posted a confirmed Q3 earnings date there.
Investor Takeaway
DraftKings’ Thursday slide puts the focus on whether its nationwide Predictions expansion can convert NFL-season demand into attractive economics while Kalshi holds a large exchange-volume lead.
The counterweight is DraftKings’ established sportsbook and parlay infrastructure, alongside management’s maintained 2026 profitability guidance. Upcoming NFL-week activity and regulatory developments should provide the next measurable tests.
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