What to know:
- The monthly trading volume for the prediction market jumped from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to over $20 billion by early 2026.
- Legal approval for Kalshi, partnerships with Robinhood, and a $2 billion investment have pushed prediction markets into wider public and institutional awareness.
The prediction market has been recorded to be moving mainstream at a surprising speed. These platforms typically allow people to trade on the outcome of real-life events; the topics range from election-related topics to crypto prices and many more. Instead of guessing, users put money behind what they think will happen and earn if they are right.
Although prediction markets are not new, their adoption has remained limited in the last few years. Today, newer platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are driving rapid growth, especially due to the help coming from blockchain technology that allows faster transactions, global access, and constant trading.
Source: trmlabs. com
Over the past year, activity has increased sharply. Monthly trading volume, which was around $1.2 billion in 2025, surged to more than $20 billion by early 2026.
At the same time, the number of users grew significantly, with nearly 840,000 unique wallets recorded by February 2026, showing that the growth is coming from new participants, not just bigger bets.
A major turning point came in October 2024 when a US court allowed Kalshi to offer election contracts legally. This decision brought more attention to the market, especially during the presidential election period. Momentum continued in 2025 when Kalshi expanded into sports betting across the US and partnered with Robinhood, bringing millions of users to prediction markets for the first time.
Institutional interest also increased. Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, announced a $2 billion investment plan in Polymarket, valuing it at $8 billion.
Source: trmlabs.com
What Is Driving the Prediction Market Growth
Over time, politics, sports, finance, and crypto have all played key roles in attracting users. In October 2025, markets related to the New York City mayoral election generated over $150 million in trading volume, with one contract alone attracting more than 34,000 participants.
Sports events have also brought in large volumes. Super Bowl-related prediction markets crossed $1 billion in trades, showing strong public interest.
Social media has also helped fuel growth. Platforms like Google Finance began showing live prediction odds, while appearances in mainstream media brought even more users into the space. This helped create a cycle where more visibility led to more users, and more users led to higher trading
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