Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Rises as Trump-Xi China Talks Put $30 Billion Opportunity in Focus

TLDR

• Nvidia stock was up 1.1% at $224.65 in Monday premarket trading, according to Barron’s, with U.S.-China talks in focus.
• President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Washington this week, with AI and chip access expected to be discussed.
• KeyBanc estimates Chinese companies could buy about 1.5 million H200 processors, representing roughly $30 billion in revenue.
• Nvidia estimates China represents a roughly $50 billion market opportunity for its processors.
• CEO Jensen Huang is expected to attend Thursday’s state dinner as Nvidia seeks wider access to Chinese customers.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose 1.1% to $224.65 in Monday premarket trading, according to Barron’s. The stock entered the session up about 19% in 2026 but below its May record close of $235.74.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Attention is turning to this week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. AI, trade and technology restrictions are expected to feature in the talks.

For Nvidia, the central question is whether the discussions change access to Chinese customers. The company has been restricted from competing freely in China’s data-center processor market.

The Trump administration previously opened a route for Nvidia’s H200 processors to be sold to approved Chinese customers. Beijing has so far allowed only limited shipments.

China Could Represent a $30 Billion H200 Opportunity

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh estimates Chinese companies could purchase around 1.5 million H200 processors. At that level, the opportunity could represent roughly $30 billion in revenue for Nvidia.

Nvidia itself estimates China represents a roughly $50 billion addressable market. The H200 is an older processor than Nvidia’s current Blackwell products and its coming Vera Rubin hardware.

Chinese authorities have remained cautious about becoming dependent on U.S. technology. ByteDance and Tencent were previously permitted to receive only around 10,000 H200 processors each, according to reporting cited by Barron’s.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has argued that U.S. companies should be able to compete internationally while American customers receive the most advanced technology first. He has opposed a complete ban on chip sales to Chinese companies.

Nvidia has already produced rapid growth without relying on Chinese data-center revenue. The company forecast $108 billion of revenue for its current quarter, representing roughly 89% year-over-year growth.

Nvidia also raised its outlook for the next fiscal year, forecasting revenue growth of about 70%. Demand for AI processors and the rollout of Vera Rubin are central to that outlook.

Jensen Huang Set to Attend State Dinner

Huang is expected to attend Thursday’s White House state dinner for Xi. Other technology executives are also expected to attend as AI becomes one of the subjects surrounding the U.S.-China meetings.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng have also been discussing AI, trade and rare earth supplies ahead of the summit. Reuters reports that AI access and security remain areas of disagreement between Washington and Beijing.

Any expansion of H200 shipments would provide Nvidia with revenue that is not included in some of its recent China assumptions. The company has warned that restrictions have limited its ability to compete in China’s data-center computing market.

There is no confirmed agreement to expand Nvidia’s processor sales to China. The outcome will depend on decisions from both U.S. and Chinese authorities rather than Nvidia alone.

The next scheduled Nvidia financial report is expected in November. Before then, this week’s Trump-Xi meetings will provide the latest indication of whether Nvidia can increase H200 sales into China.