TL;DR: Circle’s USDC currently dominates AI agent payment activity, but that lead faces growing competition as the stablecoin and blockchain landscape evolves. As more players enter the space, Apple and Google are building expertise in stablecoins and tokenized finance, while Circle and Tether develop their own blockchain infrastructure.
Key Takeaways
- Apple is seeking financial product expertise involving stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and blockchain, while Google is expanding its Web3 and digital asset capabilities and developing the Google Clound Universal Ledger.
- Circle’s Arc layer-1 network launched its public mainnet as a blockchain designed for both human and machine transactions. Circle also minted 10 billion ARC tokens as it explores a future proof-of-stake model.
- Circle says USDC controls 98.6% of agentic AI payment volume, while TRM Labs found that USDC accounted for 99.6% of the value settled through x402 since May 2025.
- Although current agentic AI payment volumes remain small, forecasts point to dramatically greater activity. Arc currently processes more than 3,000 TPS, with Circle targeting 100,000 TPS, while some forecasts envision AI agent networks eventually needing up to 1 billion TPS.
Table of Contents:
- Apple, Google on the hunt for stablecoin talent
- Circle celebrates Arc launch, ARC token mint, new ‘wrapped’ BTC loans
- Agentic AI payments not always what they seem
- AI agents could overwhelm blockchain capacity
- FAQs
Circle (NASDAQ: CRCL) is celebrating its USDC stablecoin’s dominance in the realm of agentic AI payments, but could that dominance ultimately rebound like Frankenstein’s monster?
You’re nobody these days without some kind of stablecoin settlement option, and the latest titans racing to catch this fast-moving stable-train include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and they’re starting with the talent behind this technology.
Apple is seeking a U.S.-based Apple Pay Financial Product Strategy Lead to “help shape the future of our financial products,” including Apple Card and Apple Cash. The role’s ‘preferred’ qualifications include understanding of “stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and blockchain technology,” as well as knowledge of “major payment systems outside the U.S.”
Google is looking for a Hong Kong-based Industry Principal Architect, Web3 to serve as the company’s “executive technical authority guiding Google Cloud’s most strategic engagements across the Web3, digital assets, and decentralized technology ecosystem in APAC.” Knowledge of “Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization, stablecoin rails, tokenized deposits, and custody architectures within regulated financial environments” would be a plus.
Apple has been slower off this mark than Google, which has its own layer-1 network in development (Google Cloud Universal Ledger) in a partnership with CME Group (NASDAQ: CME). And while Google has claimed its GCUL will be ‘credibly neutral,’ others find it hard to believe that the company that controls so much of the internet will not flex those muscles in the great stablecoin battle yet to come.
There’s a major land-grab currently underway by any large entity involved in money movement that doesn’t want to get left behind in this rapidly transforming fintech environment. Everyone from global banks to traditional money transmitters is getting in on the action, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll end up primarily handling bespoke tokens, existing stablecoin incumbents, some of the more recent arrivals, or a Baskin Robbins menu of fiat-backed tokens.
Arc, the stable angels sing
At present, the stablecoin sector is dominated by Circle’s USDC and Tether’s USDT, the pair combining for over 85% of the current stablecoin market cap. But these companies are also busy building their own stablecoin rails, looking to become masters of their own destinies in what promises to be a far more crowded market in the years to come.
Tether has Stable, the ‘stablechain’ launched last year by Tether’s sister company Bitfinex that leans heavily on USDT. And Circle officially launched its layer-1 network Arc public mainnet last week, nearly one year after Arc’s public testnet debut.
Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire called Arc “the single most significant launch in Circle’s history since USDC itself.” Allaire dubbed Arc “an open, neutral [there’s that word again], always-on economic operating system for the internet, secured by some of the most important financial institutions on Earth, and built for a world where both people and machines transact.”
For the moment, USDC remains the water flowing through Arc’s canals, as well as the token that Arc users will need to pay network fees. But Circle confirmed last week that it had completed the genesis mint of its native ARC token (after booking $242 million in revenue during Q2 from two ARC presale rounds).
An initial total supply of 10 billion ARC tokens has been minted, and while Circle still hasn’t decided whether it will publicly offer the token, it’s framing ARC as “a digital commodity intended to act as the native coordination mechanism for security, utility, and governance on Arc” as Circle “explores a future transition” to a proof-of-stake network next year.
Circle says over 100 builders—banks, payment firms, asset managers, exchanges, custodians, wallets, etc.—are tinkering with its new toy. There are also options to ‘borrow, lend and earn’ using USDC or Circle’s euro-denominated EURC stablecoin.
On Monday, Circle added to these lending options with new Digital Asset-Backed Borrowing (DABB) for Circle Mint customers. DABB will allow users to deposit BTC and mint Circle Wrapped Bitcoin (cirBTC), then use that cirBTC as collateral with supported third-party lending markets to receive borrowed USDC without having to sell their BTC. DABB will be available via Arc or Ethereum.
AI agentic payments not always what they seem
Circle described Arc as “the first blockchain designed from genesis for AI agents as economic actors.” USDC has earned a reputation as the token of choice for artificial intelligence (AI) agents, with Circle claiming this spring to control 98.6% of agentic AI payment volume.
Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic recently reported that the number of agentic AI transactions had increased by “more than 500%” between May and August. That these payments are growing is undeniable. But by how much is a matter of some debate.
TRM Labs reported this month that most of the payment volume flowing through x402 facilitators isn’t actually agentic, at least, not in the classical sense of an intelligent agent cruising the internet with certain user-supplied criteria seeking to get you the best deal possible. In fact, true agentic AI payments may account for only between 0.6%-7.5% of all x402 commerce.
As TRM noted, the x402 protocol doesn’t require payments to be agentic. “Anyone who writes a script can drive the same 402 sequence, and it leaves an identical onchain record. Scheduled jobs, load tests, self-dealing, and ordinary automation all look the same as an agent from the chain’s point of view. So a headline number that sizes x402 tells you how much moved through the protocol, but not how much is agentic.”
The microtransaction nature of agentic AI payments means overall transaction volume remains small (TRM estimates between US$5,000-$11,000/month). But TRM did confirm Circle’s agentic payments dominance, putting USDC at 99.6% of the total x402 value settled since May 2025.
Could agents break bandwidth-challenged networks?
Some estimates have suggested total agentic AI consumer spending will hit $944 billion this year and could rise to $3.35 billion by 2030. Reaching those heights will require similarly massive growth in the number of AI agents and a corresponding rise in the number of transactions. These are surges that not many blockchains are currently prepared to handle and, quite honestly, never will be.
Speaking at last week’s Avalanche Summit in New York, Avalanche Treasury Company CEO Bart Smith said that when TradFi institutions make the inevitable switch to 24/5 trading and ultimately 24/7 trading, they won’t be able to do that on their “old rails … You’re going to have to create new infrastructure … You’re going to build it on blockchains.”
On top of that, “if we hit any of the low ends of expectations of what agentic activity is going to happen as AI gets into traditional markets, all of that’s going to be on blockchains too. There’s not enough block space. And block space is not infinite anymore.”
Agentic-compatible bandwidth isn’t a new concern, with some forecasts of agentic AI demand eventually requiring networks that can handle up to one billion transactions per second (TPS). Fortunately, some networks are more prepared for this eventuality than others.
Arc is currently processing over 3,000 TPS, and while Circle is aiming to push this to 100,000 TPS at some unscheduled point in the future, hitting that number could prove a race with the AI agents Circle so eagerly promotes. And remember, these mechanical marvels don’t appear eager to slow down anytime soon.
FAQs
What is USDC?
USDC is Circle’s stablecoin. It is also the primary asset flowing through Circle’s Arc network and is used to pay Arc network fees.
How dominant is USDC in AI agent payments?
Circle previously claimed USDC represented 98.6% of agentic AI payment volume. But more recently, TRM Labs found that USDC represented 99.6% of the total value settled through the x402 protocol since May 2025.
Are all x402 transactions made by AI agents?
No. TRM Labs found that much of the payment activity flowing through x402 facilitators may come from ordinary automation, scheduled jobs, testing, or other activity. Its analysis estimated that genuinely agentic AI payments could represent only 0.6% to 7.5% of x402 commerce.
What is Circle’s Arc network?
Arc is Circle’s layer-1 blockchain, designed from its creation to support economic activity involving both people and AI agents. Circle describes it as an always-on economic infrastructure for internet transactions, with USDC currently serving as its primary payment and fee token.
Are Apple and Google entering the stablecoin space?
Apple or Google did not mention launching their own stablecoins and only highlighted their move to build expertise in the underlying financial infrastructure.
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