- CryptoQuant founder expects 3–5x BTC returns this cycle instead of another 10x rally.
- A more mature market could lead to a less severe Bitcoin bear market.
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju is making a case that most retail traders do not want to hear: this Bitcoin bull cycle is likely to deliver 3–5x returns rather than another parabolic 10x rally, followed by a significantly milder bear market than previous cycles.
When Bitcoin was smaller, and retail dominated the market, hot money fuelled explosive rallies and 80% crashes in equal measure. Today’s market is a different animal. Institutional ownership is growing, the market cap is substantially larger, and the same forces that cap the upside are softening the downside.
What the On-Chain Data Is Saying?
The PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, is reflecting exactly this dynamic, with less extreme cycle tops and bottoms forming at higher profitability levels than previous cycles.
Moreover, this cycle, MVRV never fell below 1. Even at the lows, BTC stayed above holders’ average on-chain cost basis. Some investors took losses, but holders as a whole never went underwater.
Meanwhile, three signals are pointing in the same direction. The rising realised cap signals fresh capital inflows. OG whales have stopped selling. And futures whales built large long positions near the bottom. Even the PnL Index’s 365-day moving average, which typically lags at turning points, is forming a meaningful inflection right now.
None of this means Bitcoin has a ceiling. It means the trade-off has changed. Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash, and that’s exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money.
Also, the vision of Bitcoin as actual money, stable enough to use, trusted enough to hold, once dismissed as a self-fulfilling prophecy, may be quietly becoming reality. Once Bitcoin matures enough to serve as real money, internet-native capital could reshape the world in ways that go far beyond speculative price targets.
The Short-Term Trajectory
The largest and dominant asset, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently trading within the $86,079 range, and the volume is settled at around $41.895 billion. Its 24-hour range is found between $85,237 and $87,251. The bounce from the lows has been sharp; sentiment has flipped bullish.
Furthermore, the historical technical patterns suggest Bitcoin could face a 30% correction, projecting a potential drawdown. The mapped trajectory outlines an initial push to $77K–$82K, followed by a multi-tier decline through $70K and $60K before reaching the $54K target.
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