Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Roadster Reveal Set for Thursday Before Delivery Report

TLDR

• Tesla stock slipped 1.4% to $366.76 in early Monday trading, down 17% year to date.
• Tesla will unveil a new Roadster on Thursday, October 1, before reporting Q3 deliveries on Friday.
• Wall Street expects roughly 463,000 vehicles sold in Q3, down from about 497,000 a year ago.
• Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight rating with a $485 price target, citing autonomous trucking potential.
• StoneX and UBS both released delivery estimates below or near consensus ahead of Friday’s report.

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Tesla stock traded lower on Monday morning, down 1.4% to $366.76 as investors braced for a busy week. The stock is now down 17% year to date and off 16% over the past 12 months.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The broader market also dipped, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each falling around 0.5%. Rising oil prices added pressure across the board.

Tesla has two major events on deck this week. The company will unveil the latest version of its Roadster on Thursday, October 1, followed by its third-quarter delivery report on Friday.

See you next week pic.twitter.com/BT52bGVxFu

— Tesla (@Tesla) September 25, 2026

What Analysts Expect From Deliveries

Wall Street projects Tesla will report about 463,000 vehicle deliveries for the third quarter. That would mark a drop from roughly 497,000 vehicles sold in the same period last year.

Last year’s total got a lift from buyers rushing to claim the $7,500 federal EV tax credit before it expired in September. That comparison makes this year’s numbers look weaker on paper.

StoneX analyst Mickey Legg expects Tesla to report around 446,500 deliveries, down 7% from the prior quarter and 10% from a year ago. That estimate sits below the FactSet consensus.

Despite the expected miss, Legg rates Tesla a Buy with a $475 price target. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an Overweight rating, setting its target at $485.

Cantor’s own estimate is more cautious, projecting 421,758 deliveries against a Visible Alpha consensus of 448,679. UBS landed on the high end, forecasting 470,000 deliveries with a Neutral rating and a $385 target.

Beyond the Cars

Deliveries used to move Tesla’s stock more than they do now. Investors have shifted focus toward the company’s AI ambitions, particularly its robotaxi rollout and the Optimus humanoid robot.

Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin back in June 2025, but expanding it has been a slow process. The upcoming Roadster reveal is generating more buzz than the delivery figures at this point.

Cantor Fitzgerald also weighed in on Tesla’s trucking business. The firm said Tesla is now producing up to 1,000 Semi Trucks per week, though the Semi will remain a small slice of the overall fleet through year end.

Tesla has framed the U.S. truck driver shortage as a demand driver for autonomous trucking, a market it plans to enter. Still, the company has said robotaxi and Cybercab scaling remains the bigger priority.

Cantor expects third-quarter energy storage deployments of 17.1 GWh under Visible Alpha consensus, versus its own estimate of 15 GWh. That business has become another piece investors track outside of car sales.

On the regulatory side, the European Union pushed back its vote on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, with a decision now expected in December. The system has already won approval from the Dutch regulator RDW and gained provisional approval in the Czech Republic.

Tesla also announced plans to raise wages by 4% to 5% at its Berlin-Brandenburg factory in Germany, starting October 1. That change lands the same day as the Roadster unveiling.