Among the giants, Ripple may be at the most critical turning point.
Technically speaking, the $1.5-$1.7 region remains a formidable barrier for XRP. The altcoin has failed to overcome this obstacle since the beginning of the year.
Moreover, the altcoin has been moving sideways around this level for over four weeks now. At first glance, this looks like textbook accumulation where buyers take control and absorb supply.
However, on-chain data says otherwise. According to a CryptoQuant report, XRP’s Binance Scarcity Index (BNI) is at its lowest level since January 2025, which means there is a growing supply of XRP on Binance.
Thus, the lower the scarcity, the higher the amount of tokens available for selling in the market, which undermines the long accumulation thesis.
Interestingly, XRP’s Open Interest is also seeing its strongest growth since August 2025.
Since late August, XRP has gained more than 70% and is currently trading at $1.50, a roughly 50% increase over the past month. Binance Open Interest has been increasing as well, indicating that leveraged funds are flowing into the market.
With monthly Open Interest growth averaging nearly 1.3%, XRP has seen its strongest increase since August 2025. This implies that the recent increase in price is being driven not only by spot buying but by futures as well.
Put together, this makes XRP’s setup look less like ideal accumulation and more like a potential bull trap. However, as far as the XRP Ledger is concerned, things are looking good, and the fundamentals continue to improve.
The question now is whether Ripple [XRP] can catch up to its fundamentals or whether rising leverage will keep the rally vulnerable.
XRP’s strong fundamentals face rising on-chain risks
Ripple is kicking off Q4 with a major strategic move.
In a post on X, Ripple announced that CSD BR is partnering with Ripple to tokenize Brazilian capital markets on the XRP Ledger, starting with the shares of the BTG Pactual fund, secured through Ripple Custody.
This could give the XRP Ledger a bigger role in Brazil’s growing tokenization market, adding another layer to Ripple’s growing institutional momentum.
The timing is also critical. As the chart below shows, the supply of stablecoins on the XRP Ledger has hit a new all-time high of $1.2 billion, up 4% this week alone.
That means more than $50 million in fresh liquidity has entered the network. With more than 90% of this supply being RLUSD, the stablecoin’s own supply has also hit a record $2.5 billion, further boosting XRPL’s liquidity setup.
Together, liquidity and new institutional use cases point to increased activity across the XRP ecosystem.
This, in turn, could keep XRPL activity, tokenization, and liquidity growing in the short term. But the bigger picture remains mixed.
On-chain weakness and rising leverage are creating pressure, while Ripple’s institutional moves, record RLUSD supply, and strong technical strength provide support.
That puts XRPL’s fundamentals at a crucial juncture for this cycle. Breaking above the $1.50 resistance without a significant leverage unwind would demonstrate that the increased network activity is beginning to have a material price impact.
More importantly, it provides investors with an area to watch as Ripple enters Q4, which makes it an interesting trend to follow for XRP’s next move.
Final Summary
- XRP faces strong resistance at $1.50–$1.70 as leverage and selling pressure rise.
- Growing XRPL activity and record RLUSD supply could support XRP in Q4.
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