Oil Prices Slide as Middle East Supply Shows Signs of Life

TLDR

• Brent crude fell 0.8% to $97.24 a barrel and WTI slipped 1% to $89.50 on Thursday.
• Middle East crude exports hit 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the conflict began in February.
• Saudi Arabia restarted tanker loadings from Yanbu after repairing its East-West pipeline.
• Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley raised their oil price forecasts for the rest of the year.
• U.S. diesel prices hit a record $6.53 a gallon as officials debate a possible export ban.

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Oil prices fell on Thursday after rising the day before. Traders are watching signs that Middle East crude supply is recovering. But they are still unsure if that recovery will last.

Brent crude futures for December dropped 0.8% to $97.24 a barrel. This was recorded at 02:41 ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1% to $89.50 a barrel.

The front-month Brent contract expired on Wednesday. It settled at $103.50 in the prior session.

Brent gained about 14% in September. That was its strongest monthly gain since July. WTI rose about 5% over the same month.

Middle East Exports Climb Back

New data shows Gulf exports are recovering. Middle East crude exports reached 16.328 million barrels per day in September. That is the highest level since the conflict began in February, according to data firm Kpler.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Something very strange is happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf oil exports are surging, tankers are being attacked, and the U.S is apparently taking fire almost every day without hitting back.

The Wall Street Journal, citing Kpler data, reports Gulf oil flows have… pic.twitter.com/JTtn3Ykbfx

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 30, 2026

Saudi Arabia also resumed tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu. This came after the country restarted its East-West pipeline, which had been damaged.

Still, regional flows remain below levels seen before the conflict. Kpler data shows September exports were about 3.2 million barrels per day lower than February levels. This leaves the market open to any new disruption.

Diplomacy is also part of the story. Iran said on Wednesday that it received a U.S. response to its latest ceasefire proposal. This followed President Donald Trump rejecting an earlier plan tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Banks Raise Price Forecasts

A survey by The Wall Street Journal shows major banks raised their oil price forecasts. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley now see Brent crude averaging $90.22 a barrel in the fourth quarter. WTI is expected to average $85.47 a barrel.

Both figures are well above earlier forecasts of $78.92 and $74.62 a barrel. The increase reflects ongoing worries about supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict.

For the full year, the survey sees Brent averaging $88.13 a barrel. WTI is expected to average $82.98 a barrel. Analysts expect prices to ease in the first quarter of next year, with Brent falling to $83.44 and WTI to $79.88.

China’s oil demand remains hard to predict. The country has leaned on stockpiles built up before the conflict, limiting its need to buy more crude. Chinese crude imports rose 6% in September compared to August, according to Goldman Sachs.

Meanwhile, U.S. fuel markets are tightening. Gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million barrels last week. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, dropped 2.3 million barrels.

U.S. diesel prices reached a record $6.53 a gallon last week. Diesel inventories remain at historically low levels. President Trump said Wednesday he is still discussing a possible ban on U.S. diesel exports. The White House had earlier denied reports of a 90-day blanket ban.

Russia is expected to extend its own diesel export restrictions for another month. This adds further pressure to already tight global fuel supplies heading into the final quarter of the year.