SanDisk (SNDK) Stock Drops 17% in Q3 as Bernstein Sees 73% Upside

TLDR

• SanDisk (SNDK) stock fell 17% in the third quarter despite a 628% year-to-date gain.
• Bernstein kept an Outperform rating and a $3,000 price target on SanDisk, implying 73% upside.
• Bernstein also kept Micron (MU) at Outperform with a $1,300 target, implying 22% upside.
• DRAM and NAND prices are expected to rise about 20% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026.
• SanDisk reports earnings on October 29, which analysts see as a possible catalyst.

---

SanDisk (SNDK) stock closed at $1,739.89 on Wednesday, up 0.59% on the day. The stock has fallen 17% during the third quarter, even though the S&P 500 gained 4.3% over the same stretch. Despite the pullback, SanDisk is still sitting on a 628% gain for the year.

Sandisk Corporation, SNDK

Bernstein analyst Mark Newman is not backing off his bullish view. The firm kept its Outperform rating and $3,000 price target on SanDisk, which points to 73% upside from current levels, according to TipRanks.

Bernstein also maintained its Outperform rating on Micron (MU), with a $1,300 price target implying 22% upside. Both calls lean on the same idea: memory chips are scarce, and that scarcity is not going away soon.

Bernstein expects conventional DRAM and NAND prices to climb roughly 20% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026. The firm thinks this tight supply picture could last until 2027, though some long-term contracts may cap how high prices can go.

Why SanDisk’s Contracts Matter

Newman pointed to eight long-term SanDisk contracts worth $93.9 billion combined. These deals are expected to cover half of SanDisk’s bit demand in 2027 and two-thirds in 2028.

Included in those agreements is $16.5 billion in financial guarantees, along with pricing floors and ceilings. That structure could protect SanDisk if NAND prices eventually drop.

At its August investor day, SanDisk laid out long-term guidance for mid-to-high teens revenue growth. The company also guided toward roughly 80% non-GAAP gross margins from fiscal 2028 through 2030.

Citigroup analyst Asiya Merchant said SanDisk’s pitch is that NAND demand is shifting toward a longer structural runway. She pointed to datacenter demand, hyperscale AI deployments, and enterprise SSD adoption as the new growth drivers, rather than typical consumer replacement cycles.

Micron Earnings Could Set the Tone

Investors may get an early read on Bernstein’s memory thesis when Micron reports fiscal fourth-quarter results. Wall Street expects Micron’s revenue to jump 354% to $51.4 billion, with earnings rising to $31.73 per share from $3.03 a year earlier.

Bernstein’s Mark Li raised his own Micron estimates too. He now expects fiscal 2026 sales of $130.1 billion, up from a prior estimate of $122.6 billion, with adjusted earnings of $73.78 per share, up from $67.39.

Wall Street’s broader consensus is a bit more cautious than Bernstein’s. TipRanks’ average Micron price target of $1,469.25 implies 38% upside, while its SanDisk consensus target of $2,195.29 implies 27% upside.

Analysts have tied the Q3 pullback in SanDisk to profit-taking after a huge run, plus lingering worries about AI spending growth and whether NAND prices could soften in 2027. Nothing in the underlying business has changed to justify the drop, according to market watchers.

SanDisk is set to report earnings on October 29. That date is shaping up as the next real test of whether the memory story still has legs.