XRP began October trading at about $1.49, with a reported spot price of $1.4893 at 02:50 UTC on October 1. It had recently consolidated around that level and remained just below nearby resistance, without a confirmed breakout.
Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow on October 1 in four transactions of 400 million, 300 million, 200 million and 100 million XRP, according to Blockchain.News. That is a gross escrow unlock, not proof that the full amount immediately entered circulation; Ripple has explained that unused XRP can be returned to escrow.
For an XRP price prediction in October 2026, the focus is whether the bullish daily structure can carry price through the nearby resistance levels rather than treating the unlock as automatic selling pressure. XRP was above all eight tracked moving averages on the October 1 reading, and the 50-day average was above the 200-day average. The source classified the moving-average group as a Buy signal, while shorter-term momentum readings were less decisive.
XRP daily trend remains bullish, but momentum signals are not fully aligned
The broader daily setup remains constructive on the supplied readings. XRP was above all eight tracked moving averages at the October 1 observation, while the 50-day average stood above the 200-day average. The source classified the moving-average group as a Buy signal, a configuration consistent with a positive daily trend rather than a market in a broad technical breakdown.
That trend evidence matters because XRP is trading close to $1.49, where relatively small moves could determine whether it escapes its recent consolidation. A separate recent assessment likewise described a strong bullish daily bias, while stressing that price was still below nearby resistance and that RSI remained neutral.
Momentum does not yet give an unqualified confirmation. The daily RSI was 56.0 at 02:50 UTC on October 1, which places it in neutral territory rather than an overbought or oversold extreme. A September 30 reading from CoinDCX put RSI at 55.72, below its 57.89 signal line. In that assessment, momentum remained above 50 but the reported cross pointed to a bearish turn.
The intraday picture is softer still. Hourly MACD was reported at -0.002460, below its -0.001466 signal line, a bearish alignment that suggests short-term momentum had not fully matched the bullish daily moving-average structure.
These readings can coexist without contradiction. Moving averages tend to describe the underlying trend over a broader period, while RSI and hourly MACD can flag hesitation or a pullback within that trend. For XRP, that means the daily backdrop supports a bullish case, but an immediate advance still needs price confirmation at resistance rather than relying on the moving-average signal alone.
XRP levels to watch: $1.4852 support and $1.501 resistance
With spot at $1.4893, XRP was effectively positioned between its nearest quoted daily support at $1.4852 and first resistance at $1.501. That narrow interval is the initial decision area. A close above $1.501 would strengthen the bullish technical case, while a close below $1.4852 would weaken it.
| Level | Technical role | What it would indicate |
|---|---|---|
| $1.4852 | Nearest daily support | Holding it preserves the immediate bullish setup; a close below weakens it. |
| $1.4564 | 20-day EMA and nearby intraday-floor area | Next reported support if the first floor gives way. |
| $1.4255 | Second daily pivot/support | A deeper retracement level within the supplied daily map. |
| $1.501 | Nearest daily resistance | A close above would strengthen the upside case. |
| $1.55 | Immediate swing-high/neckline resistance | A break is identified as the next important upside test. |
| $1.6185 | Daily resistance cluster | Higher resistance involving several reported technical references. |
On the upside, $1.501 is the first hurdle, but $1.55 is the more consequential nearby barrier. Recent coverage placed XRP’s trading range around $1.48 to $1.55 and identified a break above $1.55 as a potential trigger toward the $1.60-$1.70 resistance zone. That area includes the separately reported $1.6185 daily cluster, associated with Fibonacci, upper Bollinger-band, upper Donchian-boundary and swing-high references.
Consequently, a move through $1.501 alone would improve the near-term chart, but would not by itself resolve the larger supply area. XRP would still need to clear $1.55 before the market could test the higher resistance cluster and the broader $1.60-$1.70 zone.
The downside map is equally clear. Failure to hold $1.4852 places $1.4564 in view, described as the 20-day EMA and a nearby intraday-floor support zone. Below that comes $1.4255, the second daily pivot/support level. The wider $1.25-$1.32 area is the supplied broader September daily demand zone, but it is not the immediate level for a market still trading near $1.49.
This stacked structure explains why the first few cents around spot matter. XRP has room for a bullish continuation only if buyers can turn the nearby resistance ladder into support; conversely, a loss of the first daily floor would shift attention toward the lower supports before any larger demand area becomes relevant.
XRP price prediction after the 1 billion-token unlock
The conditional near-term XRP outlook is cautiously constructive, not decisively bullish. Price at roughly $1.49 sits above a daily moving-average structure that is uniformly positive, with the 50-day average above the 200-day average. Yet neutral-to-mixed RSI readings and a bearish hourly MACD show that momentum has not provided a clean confirmation at the point where XRP must overcome resistance.
Ripple’s 1 billion XRP escrow release does not, by itself, settle that question. The release is a scheduled gross unlock mechanism, and Ripple has stated that XRP not used can be placed back into escrow. It would therefore be inaccurate to equate the 1 billion-token event automatically with 1 billion XRP of fresh market supply or assume that it independently determines the next price move.
For the title’s $1.49 scenario, the available evidence supports treating that level as XRP’s current consolidation area rather than a technical destination. Holding around $1.49 and defending $1.4852 would keep the constructive daily setup intact. A sustained move above $1.501 would provide the first improvement, while a break through $1.55 would offer materially stronger evidence that buyers can challenge the reported $1.60-$1.70 supply zone, including resistance at $1.6185.
By contrast, a close below $1.4852 would weaken the bullish setup and put $1.4564, then $1.4255, into focus. The daily moving-average alignment means the upside case remains credible, but it is conditional on price clearing resistance rather than merely remaining near $1.49. With short-term MACD bearish and daily RSI neutral, the chart still requires that confirmation.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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