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Ahmed Barakat
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The International Monetary Fund completed El Salvador’s second and third reviews last night, authorizing an immediate disbursement of SDR 101.96 million, or about $138 million. The release followed a waiver for a missed Bitcoin accumulation performance criterion, while El Salvador program states that no further accumulation is envisaged beyond documented donations.
The decision preserves IMF financing while reinforcing a shift away from direct state involvement in Bitcoin-related activity. The board granted waivers for criteria that were not met, citing corrective measures and renewed commitments.
The EFF was approved on February 26, 2025, with a 40-month term and total access equivalent to about $1.4 billion. The latest disbursement is available after the Board completed the second and third reviews; the IMF said certain performance criteria had not been met by El Salvador, including one related to Bitcoin accumulation, but waivers were granted on the basis of corrective measures and renewed commitments.
The IMF reported that economic activity exceeded expectations, supported by sustained improvements in security and investor confidence. Fiscal consolidation advanced broadly in line with the program, while reserve and liquidity targets were comfortably met.
Its selected indicators put real GDP growth at an estimated 3.9% in 2025 and project 4.5% for 2026. Gross international reserves are estimated at $4.814 billion for 2025 and projected at $5.346 billion in 2026, adding context to the program’s emphasis on rebuilding external buffers.
That combination sets the immediate policy signal for El Salvador Bitcoin: the program allows the review process to proceed despite the missed criterion, but does not point to continued government-led Bitcoin accumulation as a program objective. The IMF’s stated position is narrower and specific: no further accumulation is envisaged beyond documented donations.
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Dan Katz, the IMF’s First Deputy Managing Director and Chair, linked the Chivo transfer to the broader retreat from direct state participation and said remaining exposure and oversight gaps still require attention.
Katz said the state’s involvement in Bitcoin-related activities is being unwound as regulations are enhanced. He described the transfer of majority ownership and control of Chivo to a private operator as a welcome step, said residual public-sector exposure should be fully unwound, and stated that no further El Salvador Bitcoin accumulation is expected beyond documented donations.
Bitcoin itself pushed back above $86,000 today, extending the rebound that started at the end of September. BTC has gained roughly 3% over the past 24 hours, after spending much of the week stuck around the $83,000–$85,000 area.
The move puts $87,000 back in focus as the next nearby hurdle. However, BTC is still well below its record high, though, leaving traders watching whether this latest bounce can turn into a sustained move higher rather than another rejection around the recent range.
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