Bitcoin Heads Higher on Macro Moves: Where Does BTC Go Next?

Bad news for the economy is, once again, good news for risk assets.

The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 84,000 economists expected. The two previous months were revised down by a combined 60,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Wall Street’s reading: the pressure to keep hiking rates just eased, which generally bodes well for risk assets like Bitcoin. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization rose sharply following today’s macro moves, and the charts suggest Bitcoin could go higher still during the month affectionately known as Uptober.

Before diving into the data, here’s some context traders and investors should know: The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point on September 16, in a unanimous vote, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. It was the first hike since 2023. Higher rates means less “cheap money” for investments, but Bitcoin shook it off far better than Wall Street.

Since then, though, officials have been tapping the brakes. New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday there was “no need for urgency,” and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Thursday that policymakers may need more time before deciding whether to raise rates again.

CME FedWatch odds of a hike at the October meeting dropped sharply after the report, falling to 14% from 70% earlier this week. Prediction markets Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad agree: 80% odds of a hold on October 28.

Crypto liked this a lot. The total crypto market cap is above $3 trillion, up 2.5% in 24 hours, and the Fear & Greed Index reads 71, firmly in “greed” territory. ETF flows are green at +$102 million today, and Bitcoin dominance sits at 59.1%.

Bitcoin price: Staring at the ceiling

Bitcoin is up 1.57% on the day, trading at $86,152.75 after opening at $84,824.05. Today’s candle has already tested a high of $87,173.15, just shy of the $87,354.33 September high that marks the top of the range, the yearly resistance bulls need to clear. The low was $84,492.18.

That September high came at the end of a rally from the $74,977.57 swing low, a 16.5% climb. Since then, Bitcoin has been moving sideways around that mark. Here is what the indicators say about whether it breaks through.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, measures how strong a trend is, regardless of direction. Readings above 25 confirm a real trend, and BTC sits at 41.8. The directional lines show buyers (DI+) above sellers (DI-), so this is a strong uptrend, not a choppy market. Very high ADX readings also mean a trend is mature.

The Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, track average prices, giving more weight to recent days. The chart shows the fast 50-day EMA above the slower 200-day, a bullish setup that usually means short-term momentum is outpacing the longer trend. The shaded cloud beneath price has also stayed green since mid-August, acting as a cushion.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, gauges buying pressure on a scale of 0 to 100. At 68.1, it signals strong momentum but is knocking on the 70 line, where traders tend to start taking profits.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is “off” with a positive reading of 2.2, which means the compression that preceded this move is over, and volatility has been released to the upside. Bitcoin’s price sits at 78.4% of the band range, in the upper half.

The technical picture leans firmly bullish, but the setup has trade-offs.

RSI is near overbought, and the macro backdrop is not exactly dovish: A December hike is still the market’s base case, and yields remain elevated. Traders will want to see a daily close above $87,354 with ADX holding up before calling it a breakout, while the Fed’s October 28 meeting is the next big macro test.