What to Expect in Crypto in October: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP

Crypto entered October after a strong third quarter, although the final weeks of September were more uneven.

Bitcoin gained about 7% in September, while Ethereum rose around 7%. Solana also outperformed Bitcoin, while several large-cap altcoins gained as Bitcoin dominance slipped below 60%.

Here’s what happened in crypto in September and what to expect in October. 

What happened in September

Bitcoin ended September around $83,000-$84,000 after briefly approaching $87,000. Institutional demand provided support, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting about $2.4 billion during the week ending Sept. 25, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.

At the same time, rising bond yields and profit-taking have kept the market from moving decisively higher.

Ethereum finished September around $2,650-$2,700, gaining roughly 7% for the month and extending its relative strength against Bitcoin. The next major catalyst is Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade testing, with the first public testnet scheduled for Oct. 6.

Solana has remained one of the stronger major altcoins, roughly doubling from its June low. Chainlink also gained more than 20% since the start of September, while the broader altcoin market showed signs of increased participation as Bitcoin’s market share fell below 60%.

However, recent historical examples show that a decline in Bitcoin dominance alone is not sufficient to establish a sustained altcoin season.

XRP also benefited from the late-September altcoin rebound. It traded mostly around $1.48-$1.55 toward the end of the month, after reaching about $1.66 on Sept. 23.

XRP gained 10.4% during the week ending Sept. 26, according to market data cited by 24/7 Wall St. Institutional demand has remained notable, with U.S. spot XRP ETFs recording 11 consecutive weeks of inflows and about $1.79 billion in cumulative inflows by Sept. 25.

Uptober: Will there be another bull run in 2026?

For October, sentiment is cautiously optimistic and increasingly centered on the “Uptober” narrative. Bitcoin has historically performed strongly in October, but 2025 broke the previous six-year winning streak, highlighting the limits of seasonal patterns.

This year’s market also enters October with several potential catalysts, including continued ETF flows, the Oct. 6 Ethereum testnet and developments around XRP Ledger upgrades.

The main counterweights are elevated bond yields, monetary-policy uncertainty and the possibility that investors take profits after the strong Q3 rally.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin ended September around $83,000 to $84,000 after reaching above $87,000. Institutional demand provided support throughout the month, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting approximately $2.4 billion during the week ending Sept. 25, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.

More broadly, Bitcoin ETF products have attracted approximately $4.9 billion since Aug. 19, according to the data cited.

At the same time, rising bond yields and profit-taking have limited Bitcoin’s ability to establish a sustained move higher.

JPMorgan analysts have identified approximately $85,000 as a reference point for Bitcoin’s average production cost. Bitcoin recently moved above that level after reportedly spending about 280 days below the estimated production cost. The cryptocurrency subsequently fell back below the threshold and was trading near $84,000 at the end of September.

The relationship between Bitcoin’s market price and production costs is particularly relevant to miners, although the estimate can change with factors including network difficulty, electricity prices and hardware efficiency.

Technical analysts are also divided over how Bitcoin’s recent structure could develop in the fourth quarter.

Benjamin Cowen has argued that investors should focus on Bitcoin’s current chart structure rather than relying on traditional four-year cycle expectations. His analysis came after Bitcoin moved above its May high on the weekly timeframe, potentially challenging the historical cycle pattern. Cowen has pointed to the weekly close as an important signal for determining the market’s next phase.

Fidelity Investments’ global macro director Jurrien Timmer has presented a longer-term scenario in which Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by 2029. His analysis is based on a Power Law model and assumes that Bitcoin maintains key long-term support around $60,000. The target is Timmer’s own model-based scenario, rather than a consensus market forecast.

October’s historical performance is one reason behind the “Uptober” narrative. Bitcoin finished October higher in 10 of the 13 years between 2013 and 2025, with an average monthly return of roughly 19%. However, Bitcoin’s six-year October winning streak ended in 2025, illustrating why seasonal patterns cannot be treated as a reliable indicator for the current month.

The market therefore enters October with several potential sources of support, including continued ETF demand, improving liquidity and the possibility of further short covering. Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the low-$80,000 area while testing the $85,000 to $87,000 region will remain closely watched.

Ethereum 

Ethereum entered October after an especially strong August, when ETH gained approximately 32.6%, rising from around $1,860 to a monthly high near $2,556 before closing around $2,466.

ETH then gained roughly 7% in September and finished the month around $2,650 to $2,700.

Institutional demand has remained an important factor. Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF products purchased more than $1.5 billion worth of ETH over a 20-day period. The purchases included approximately $1.27 billion through ETHA and about $296.5 million through the newer ETHB product.

Ethereum’s technical structure has also improved substantially since its June lows. ETH has moved above its previous $2,400 to $2,550 consolidation range, while shorter-term moving averages remain below the market.

The $2,700 to $2,800 region represents the next major resistance zone. A sustained move above it could provide a stronger technical basis for extending the September recovery, although profit-taking by large holders remains a potential source of selling pressure.

Ethereum also has a fundamental catalyst approaching. Testing for the network’s Glamsterdam upgrade is scheduled to begin with the first public testnet on Oct. 6.

Technical analyst Ali Martinez has identified a previous breakout from a similar formation that was followed by a 31% gain over three days. In his analysis, a move above $2,474 could create a path toward $3,000. That remains a technical scenario rather than a guaranteed target.

XRP

XRP also enters October in a stronger position than at the beginning of September. The token briefly reached approximately $1.66 on Sept. 23 before retreating toward the $1.50 area. XRP gained 10.4% during the week ending Sept. 26.

Institutional demand has remained notable, with U.S. spot XRP ETFs recording 11 consecutive weeks of inflows and approximately $1.79 billion in cumulative inflows as of Sept. 25.

XRP is currently trading above its major moving averages, with the 200-day average around $1.36. This creates a support area around $1.35 to $1.40 if the current recovery comes under pressure.

Seasonality provides a less consistent signal for XRP than for Bitcoin. Although XRP has recorded substantial October rallies in the past, its historical monthly performance has not consistently followed the broader crypto market.

Market sentiment is another factor to watch. Santiment data recently showed XRP’s positive-to-negative comment ratio falling to 0.67, its lowest level in roughly a month.

The U.S. regulatory environment could also remain relevant. The Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act in a procedural vote on Sept. 16 removed one potential near-term catalyst for the broader U.S. crypto market.

Several XRP-specific developments could nevertheless attract attention in October. Evernorth has completed a shareholder vote and filed additional documents with the SEC as it moves forward with its plan to become a publicly traded XRP treasury company. The company expects to hold as much as 473 million XRP following the completion of the transaction, according to its own projections.

For the broader crypto market, October therefore begins with a combination of strong third-quarter performance, substantial institutional flows and several upcoming catalysts. 

Bitcoin’s ability to hold its recent range, Ethereum’s response to the Glamsterdam testnet and XRP’s ability to maintain its September recovery will be among the key developments to watch.

The “Uptober” narrative provides a useful description of historical market behavior, but the outcome in October will ultimately depend on current liquidity, institutional flows, macroeconomic conditions and asset-specific catalysts rather than seasonality alone.