The current XRP structure seems to rhyme with the 2016 trend that preceded XRP’s meteoric surge during the 2017 bull market.
After a long pullback alongside the broader crypto market since Q4 2025, XRP started to show more strength from July 2026. The token saw positive momentum in July, August, and September, giving it three straight monthly gains for the first time since early 2025.
However, October has started with selling pressure, with XRP already down 0.46% two days into the month. Market analyst EGRAG Crypto has now assessed XRP’s long-term price structure to see whether the current structure could follow an earlier pattern from 2016.
XRP’s October History
A review of XRP’s October performance shows a mixed but generally weak history. Out of 13 Octobers, XRP recorded declines in eight, with those months posting an average decline of 61.5%. The other five Octobers ended higher, with an average increase of 38.5%.
The pattern is more bearish when September ends higher. In six of the seven cases when XRP posted a green September, October also ended in the red, with an average loss of 85.7%.
Now, XRP enters October 2026 after three consecutive green monthly candles in July, August, and September. The historical context suggests this month may present some struggles for XRP.
XRP Structure Similar to 2016 Trend
However, EGRAG called attention to 2016, when XRP also recorded a run of green monthly candles before entering a period of choppy trading and base building. XRP fell 7.27% in October 2016 and then recorded four more monthly declines from November 2016 through February 2017.
Nonetheless, the weakness did not last indefinitely. XRP entered a major expansion in March 2017, when it gained 284%. It then climbed another 143% in April 2017 before posting a 374% increase in May 2017.
The comparison does not mean XRP will repeat those exact moves in 2026, but it shows how a period of weakness and consolidation preceded the major 2017 upsurge.
Essentially, a red or choppy October 2026 would not necessarily break XRP’s longer-term structure. Instead, another period of consolidation could give the market time to build a base before a possible expansion.
XRP Eyes $23 on Fibonacci Extension
EGRAG also mentioned the longer-term XRP Fibonacci structure. In the first cycle from 2017, XRP reached the 2.236 Fibonacci level at $2.75. However, during the second cycle, XRP failed to reach this level, which stood around $20.
For the current cycle, the 2.236 Fibonacci level sits around $23. This remains a technical projection, not a guarantee that XRP will reach the level. If the current structure eventually develops into another major expansion, the $23 area could become an important long-term level.
XRP Still Faces Short-Term Key Levels
In a separate analysis, market watcher Chart Nerd noted that XRP’s monthly close fell back below the 20-month EMA after making its second attempt to reclaim the indicator. Previous failed attempts at the level have preceded rejection, which makes a move back above it important.
XRP currently trades at $1.48, while the 20-month EMA stands at $1.55. Until XRP moves back above $1.55 and holds that level, the risk of another move lower remains. This keeps the monthly EMA as an important level to watch as October develops.
Chart Nerd also highlighted the 50-week EMA at $1.52. If XRP continues to face rejection at $1.52 without posting sustained weekly closes above it, a move toward the lower-$1 area by the end of 2026 remains a plausible scenario.
On the other hand, a confirmed move above $1.52 followed by a rise toward $1.80 would support the formation of a higher low by year-end.
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