Here are the four major events likely to matter the most for BTC and the broader crypto market for the week ahead.
Although it will probably not be as impactful as the previous one (or the next), the current business week will still outline several important US economic releases that could move the crypto market in either direction.
Services activity, the latest Fed minutes, which are perhaps the most anticipated piece of news, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment will all offer fresh clues about growth and the path of interest rates at the end of this otherwise very eventful month.
FOMC Minutes and Services PMI
The first more notable release arrives today when the Institute for Supply Management publishes its September Services PMI. The sector represents the largest part of the US economy. As such, the report can materially affect expectations for growth and inflation.
A surprisingly strong reading could revive concerns that the economy remains hot enough to tolerate higher rates, especially if price pressures inside the survey remain elevated. In contrast, a weaker reading could further reinforce the argument for the Fed to pause the hikes, especially after last week’s PCE data and jobs report.
Wednesday will bring the aforementioned FOMC minutes from the September 15-16 meeting, in which the Fed increased rates for the first time in three years. The minutes should provide more detail on how divided officials were over the decision and how concerned they remain about inflation, the labor market, and another possible increase later this year.
Markets will pay close attention, including BTC investors, as expectations for the Fed’s next move influence Treasury yields, the dollar, and overall risk appetite.
Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment
On Thursday, markets will receive the latest weekly unemployment claims data, with the initial figure standing at 197,000 in the latest report, while the four-week moving average declined to 200,000. Another unusually low reading would suggest the labor market remains relatively resilient despite weak September payroll growth.
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The final major event of the week comes on Friday, with the University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment survey. Neither development is likely to impact crypto much, as the interpretations are not straightforward.
Nevertheless, there’s also the dark horse. After the new developments on the Middle East front from Friday and the weekend, markets anticipate more movements from the US and Iran, especially as both nations are reportedly bracing for fresh attacks.
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