Bitcoin traded in a narrow range around the $86,000 area after Wall Street opened on Monday, struggling to build on last week’s momentum as US Treasury yields moved back higher. The pullback came after BTC posted its highest weekly close since late January, but resistance around the late-$86,000s and the broader rates backdrop kept buyers from extending gains.
Trading data tracked by Cointelegraph/TradingView showed BTC/USD failing to decisively reclaim its weekly open near $86,500, while market attention refocused on long-dated yields. On-chain analysis from Glassnode also pointed to cooling conditions, noting less “aggressive upward momentum” than earlier in the month.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin rejected around its weekly close near $86,570 at the start of the US session, failing to break above the weekly open around $86,500.
- US bond yields rebounded, with the 30-year yield moving back above 5.67% and remaining close to 24-year highs from last week.
- QCP Capital said even softer employment data hasn’t been enough to calm bond markets amid elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Glassnode reported diminishing “aggressive upward momentum” in recent on-chain signals, despite BTC holding its September upside.
- The 2026 yearly open near $87,570 remained a notable overhead level for BTC price action.
Bitcoin stuck below weekly levels as yields regain strength
According to TradingView data referenced by Cointelegraph, BTC/USD continued to struggle to push beyond its weekly open near $86,500 after setting the highest weekly close since late January. Instead, Monday’s session saw smaller price swings and a rejection close to the weekly close at about $86,570.
With Bitcoin stalling, macro variables moved back into focus—particularly interest-rate expectations implied by Treasury yields. The 30-year yield passed 5.67% again, only a couple of basis points below the 24-year highs reached last week. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield returned toward 5.31%, compared with last week’s high around 5.34%.
This matters for traders because higher long-dated yields typically raise the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. Even when a single economic datapoint points in a “dovish” direction, investors may continue to demand higher yields if uncertainty persists elsewhere—an issue QCP Capital emphasized in its market commentary.
QCP: Cooler employment data hasn’t been enough
In a note shared by QCP Capital, the firm argued that recent cooler US employment figures did not ultimately stabilize bond markets. QCP pointed to broader constraints on risk assets, highlighting elevated oil prices and elevated long-dated yields, alongside persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
“Despite the dovish employment print, elevated oil prices and elevated long-dated yields continue to limit upside momentum for risk assets broadly,” QCP Capital wrote in its latest market analysis.
QCP’s framing helps explain the market’s behavior in practice: BTC’s attempts to extend gains face headwinds when rates and inflation-related expectations refuse to cool in parallel. As a result, Bitcoin can remain range-bound even during periods when individual data releases briefly improve sentiment.
Wall Street steadies as traders watch the next FOMC signals
US equities opened moderately higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 up about 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite up about 0.7%, reflecting cautious optimism among stock traders. Market participants also appeared to focus on expectations that the Federal Reserve may pause further interest-rate hikes at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Oct. 28, according to Cointelegraph coverage of the trading setup.
However, bond traders remained sensitive to Fed communication. CNBC reported that Deutsche Bank analysts believe the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday, could carry heightened weight because of the bond sell-off environment.
Deutsche Bank analysts, as quoted by CNBC, said that “the highly unsettled bond market makes the incoming US data and Fed communication particularly relevant,” adding that minutes could help clarify how the Committee is framing the tightening cycle and its discussion of the neutral rate—where estimates shifted higher in the September SEP.
For crypto investors, this is a reminder that BTC’s short-term direction can remain tethered to rate expectations. Even when equities show early strength, persistent yield pressure can limit how far liquidity rotates into high-beta assets.
On-chain signals show less aggressive momentum
While price action looked cautious, on-chain indicators suggested that the intensity behind recent buying was not the same as during the strongest phases of the move. Glassnode, in its Weekly Market Pulse released on Monday, described a reduction in “aggressive upward momentum” visible in on-chain data.
Glassnode characterized the behavior as a moderation rather than a clear shift into reversal or structural exhaustion. In other words, the analytics implied that buyers have not disappeared, but the push that previously drove momentum appears to have softened.
In its Weekly Market Pulse on Monday, Glassnode wrote that this behavior “reflects a moderation in aggressive upward momentum without signalling an immediate trend reversal or structural exhaustion.”
The firm also noted that Bitcoin has managed to hold its September upside even as profit-taking continues to run “hot.” Cointelegraph previously reported that long-term holders (LTHs) owning BTC in the area beyond $85,000 had become a key area of interest—an observation that aligns with the current pattern of price holding up while still struggling to break through nearby resistance.
Technically, the 2026 yearly open around $87,570 remained a major overhead level, acting as a psychological threshold that could determine whether Monday’s range tightens into a breakout—or shifts toward another retest of lower support.
What to watch next for BTC
Bitcoin’s next directional move may hinge less on internal crypto catalysts and more on whether Treasury yields continue to retreat or keep climbing toward recent peaks. Traders will likely focus on the upcoming release of the September FOMC minutes for clues on the Fed’s evolving view of the neutral rate and tightening pace, while monitoring whether on-chain buyer dominance resumes or stays subdued near key resistance levels like the 2026 yearly open.
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