‘Uptober’ Hype Is Shaky as Bitcoin’s Most Predictable Months Keep Failing

Historic data from Coinglass shows that from 2013 to 2024, February and October ended in the red only four times combined. Since January 2025, BTC dropped in February both years, and October 2025 was also negative.

Before last year, both months were red in the same year only in 2014. However, two of February’s “positive” results were less than 1%, meaning the price had essentially remained unchanged.

Failed Patterns and Smaller Changes

While February has moved away from its historic performance two years in a row now, and October is about to become another test, what has also changed since 2025 is that monthly changes have become smaller. In 2025, the average month moved 8.4% up or down, which was the smallest change since 2013. This year, this range has increased to 11.3%, making it the second-smallest.

Overall, BTC rose in 10 of the 13 Octobers from 2013 to 2025, with a median gain of around 15%. Last year, it dropped around 4%. At the time of writing, BTC is up around 3% this month.

Meanwhile, this past September surprised the market as bitcoin advanced around 6%. Between 2013 and 2024, it rose only four times, with the median price change for this whole stretch being around a 4% drop.

Analysts touted these results as further proof that this BTC rally supposedly has stronger legs, which in turn supports the “Uptober” narrative.

Overall, in 2025-26, the four strongest months by median price jump—October, February, November and July—ended below their historic performance. Meanwhile, the three weakest months—August, September and December—performed better, even when they were still red, as in August and December 2025. On average, the strongest months fell short, and the weakest beat their medians in eight of the 14 years.

Check Median Bitcoin Price Instead of Average

In either case, looking at the monthly calendar for a warning or hopium, even from 2013-2024, was not a reliable enough predictor to bet all your money on. For example, five months—January, March, May, June and December—were close to a coin flip when guessing their performance. Meanwhile, as noted above, since 2025, one of the two most reliable months—February—has already failed twice, while October’s pattern has failed once and currently is being tested again.

Also, looking only at historic averages might give you the wrong impression. So far, bitcoin’s historic average for November is a 41% jump, as this number is strongly influenced by the eye-watering rally of around 450% in 2013, when the bitcoin market was still very small. Without 2013, the average for the other 12 Novembers drops to about 7%. Meanwhile, the median price change for that month is around 9%. That means if you line up all 13 Novembers since 2013 from worst to best, the one in the middle would be November 2023, which generated around a 9% return.

Don’t Trust Seasonal Hypes

In short, the data shows that investors shouldn’t trust the “Uptober” or any other monthly hype blindly. While some kind of seasonality might indeed be behind one or another month’s performance, this can also be reinforced by market players for various reasons, overhyping these results and thereby contributing to a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, seasonal patterns are not enough to guarantee results, as the February pattern has failed two years in a row and October’s pattern is being tested now, with analysts becoming increasingly bullish even without looking at the historic calendar.

The price of bitcoin (BTC) has once again started rising, not because something changed about this most popular cryptocurrency and/or…