Popular crypto analyst Willy Woo recently tweeted that an older Bitcoin on-chain model, CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed), suggests the cryptocurrency is likely to bottom between $46k and $54k. Woo previously dismissed recent price recoveries above $70k as a bull trap and has predicted that the digital currency is likely to test the $60k support level in the near future.
Woo, a popular on-chain analyst, has maintained a bearish bias on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook for the past several months. He also sounded an alarm regarding the incoming Quantum Computing (QC) threat to the premier cryptocurrency and recommended resolving the issue on a priority basis.
The CVDD Model
The CVDD floor model is a Bitcoin analytical model developed by Woo himself. It projects a Bitcoin price bottom based on historical cycle lows and ongoing capital outflows from BTC, using a chart that overlays market price, realized price, and CVDD trends.
Woo tweeted:
“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between 46k-54k. Also hints at how much time we have to wait.
 
Orange line correlates to the capital stored in BTC and it has been leaving since November.
CVDD Floor Model has the advantage of climbing over time, 45.5k right now.”
Followed by this graph:
The dynamic tool suggests that the ongoing Bitcoin capitulation phase is likely to have a floor near $45.5k, but the metric is designed to climb gradually. Woo predicts that the eventual bottom will be anywhere between the current CVDD level ($45.5k) and the realized price ($54k). BTC is currently valued at $66k around press time.
For the popular analyst, the question of BTC dropping below $60k is not a matter of “if” but “when”. He painted a further bleak picture of the future and stated that the model is based on the premise that the global risk foundation remains steady. If the premise collapses because of the ongoing economic crisis caused by the war in the Middle East, BTC may drop even further than the current narrow range of $46k-$54k. The breakdown of the global macro is likely to play a big role in this bear market, Woo argues.
Twitterati Respond
Followers largely expressed skepticism regarding Woo’s take, many arguing that the bottom will form at a much higher price level. One followed replied:
Woo replied, “We Shall See” to this take. Another user quipped:
Bitcoin has performed better than other assets during the ongoing crisis, but even it is under pressure right now as the conflict is set to enter a more precarious stage in the coming days. If macro fails, Bitcoin is likely to feel the pressure as well.
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