Is Delta Air Lines (DAL) Stock a Buy Ahead of Q3 Earnings?

TLDR

• Delta reports Q3 2026 earnings on Oct. 9, before market open.
• Consensus EPS estimate is $1.96, up 15% year-over-year, but revised down 11% in the last 60 days.
• Revenue is expected at $17.70 billion, a 6% rise from last year.
• UBS keeps a Buy rating and $105 price target, with DAL trading near $85, up 44% over the past year.
• Zacks model shows a negative Earnings ESP and a Rank #5, pointing away from a beat.

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Delta Air Lines is set to post its third-quarter results on Oct. 9, before the bell. The stock has climbed 44% over the past year and now trades around $85.

Delta Air Lines, Inc., DAL

Wall Street currently expects earnings of $1.96 per share. That would mark a 15% increase from the same quarter last year.

Revenue is pegged at $17.70 billion, up 6% from a year ago. Still, estimates have been trimmed lately, a sign analysts see some bumps ahead.

Fuel costs are the biggest headwind this quarter. Delta expected fuel expense to jump roughly 40% year-over-year, with an all-in price near $3.15 per gallon.

A refinery outage added to the pressure too. Management flagged a 5 to 7 cent per gallon hit from the outage, even though the refinery still delivered a net benefit of about 5 cents.

What Analysts Are Watching

UBS reiterated its Buy rating this week, alongside a $105 price target. That implies solid upside from current levels.

Analyst Atul Maheswari says investors are looking for third-quarter revenue growth between 16% and 16.5%. UBS itself is more cautious, projecting EPS of $1.70 versus the Street’s $1.94.

Eight analysts have cut their earnings forecasts recently. That’s added some caution to the setup heading into the print.

The bigger story, according to UBS, might be the fourth-quarter outlook rather than Q3 itself. Investors are bracing for Q4 revenue growth around 19%.

UBS pegs that figure even higher, at 19.4%. If Delta guides above 20%, UBS thinks the market would respond well.

On fuel, the picture gets complicated. Investors expect Q4 guidance of $1.25 to $1.75 per share, based on fuel costs near $4.00 to $4.10 per gallon.

UBS lands at $1.64 for that range. A friendlier fuel number, say $3.90 to $3.95, could push the range as high as $1.50 to $2.00, though UBS doesn’t see that as the likely outcome.

The refinery is expected to swing back to a bigger benefit next quarter too. UBS estimates a gain of 40 to 45 cents per gallon if current refining margins hold.

The Numbers Behind the Noise

Non-fuel costs are another factor to watch. Delta expected only modest improvement in unit costs this quarter, with bigger gains penciled in for Q4 as capacity growth normalizes.

Labor costs remain elevated too. Delta has been investing in crew resilience and already absorbed higher industry pay scales.

Zacks’ own model leans skeptical. Delta carries a Zacks Rank #5, Strong Sell, paired with an Earnings ESP of -2.81%.

That combination typically points away from an earnings beat, according to the firm’s research. Delta has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging a 5.5% surprise.

Looking back at Q2, Delta earned $1.56 per share, topping the $1.51 estimate. Revenue came in at $17.67 billion, below the $17.76 billion consensus, even as earnings fell year-over-year on higher fuel costs.

Separately, Raymond James named Delta the best-positioned U.S. airline heading into Q4 2026. American Airlines, meanwhile, trimmed its own fourth-quarter domestic capacity growth forecast by 110 basis points to 10.1%.