FIL price jumped 12% on Monday, October 5, in a burst that no news item explains. Here is the vesting date, checked at the source, the charts, and the levels to watch.
FIL price jumped 6.1% in a single hour on Monday, October 5. The 18:00 UTC candle on Binance spot opened at 1.0893 and closed at 1.1554, on $2.1 million of volume. The two hours before it traded about $0.3 million each.
Bitcoin gained 0.26% in that hour and Ethereum 0.18%. Arweave added 1.3% and Render 0.4%. Filecoin moved alone, and the FIL price kept most of it.
The day finished at 1.1846, up 11.8% from the open of 1.0596. Tuesday’s high reached 1.2110, and the FIL price sat near 1.16 at 13:00 UTC.
What Actually Moved the FIL Price on Monday
Nothing published explains the 18:00 UTC candle. Filecoin’s X account posted a developer note on Sunday, October 4 at 19:15 UTC about storing AI job outputs through the Synapse SDK. Its Monday post came at 18:55 UTC, 55 minutes into the spike hour. That one covered Warm Storage Service pricing of $2.50 per TiB per month for a copy, with two copies the minimum.
Derivatives picked up alongside it. Binance perpetual open interest stood near $65.7 million on Tuesday, against a band of $52 million to $54 million through the week before. Funding sat at the 0.01% baseline.
The backdrop is a date that has been public for a month.
The October 15 Vesting Date, Checked at the Source
On Friday, September 4, Filecoin’s X account said the FIL vesting program ends on Thursday, October 15, cutting gross issuance by roughly 75%. The post links to a network update on filecointldr.io, which holds the numbers.
Filecoin’s post of September 4 on the vesting end date. Source: X
Per that update, vesting for Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation hands out about 66.7 million FIL a year. That is roughly triple what block rewards add. When it stops on October 15, block rewards are all that remain. That is about 22 million FIL a year, just over 2% of what circulates.
The supply section of Filecoin’s 2026 network update. Source: filecointldr.io
Its authors also ran simulations. Burns and collateral locking decide the outcome. Daily net supply growth drops 86% to 119% from August levels by the end of 2027. Past 100%, more FIL leaves circulation than enters it. Those are modeled scenarios, the authors say, and not forecasts.
It also describes FIP-0118, named Solstice, which would release part of the block reward only when paid onchain usage hits set targets. That change is projected for network version 29 and is not live.
The update makes no price claim, and nothing in it points to Monday. FIL closed at 0.7598 on September 4 and is up about 52% since, so the FIL price has risen through the whole month. That overlap is timing only, because no source ties the rally to the vesting date.
FIL Price Weekly: A 99% Bounce Stalling Under the 50-Week EMA
FIL bottomed at 0.6095 on Tuesday, August 18, and the high since is 1.2110, about double that. September alone added about half again, closing at 1.0433 after August ended at 0.6825.
FIL weekly candles with the weekly averages, the May high and the August low. Source: Binance
Saturday’s September 26 high of 1.2296 ran out of steam almost exactly at the weekly 50-period EMA, which now reads 1.227. The next peak overhead is the 1.3240 print from Friday, May 8.
Daily Candles Show the FIL Price Pushing Into One Ceiling
Sunday, September 13 was the first jolt, an 18.8% day on $41 million of volume. The FIL price has since made three runs at the same zone. Saturday, September 19 topped at 1.1342. Saturday, September 26, got to 1.2296. It closed at 1.1335, almost 8% lower.
FIL daily candles with the three pushes, the September range, and the three averages. Source: Binance
Monday’s push stopped at 1.2046 and closed at 1.1846. The FIL price now sits above all three daily averages. The 20-day sits at 1.031. The 50 and 200-day are bunched under 0.95.
The Sweep Under $1 and a Quiet Weekend
Friday, October 2 brought a stop run. The 16:00 UTC four-hour bar dipped under the round dollar to 0.9800 but closed at 0.9996. By the next bar, price was back at 1.0335. Then came the weekend. FIL drifted between 1.0426 and 1.0839 from Saturday into Monday morning, and volume thinned each day.
FIL four-hour candles showing the Friday sweep, the weekend base, and the Tuesday levels. Source: Binance
Tuesday brought two rejections near the top. The 04:00 UTC bar reached 1.2080. The 08:00 bar reached 1.2110 and closed back at 1.1696. No four-hour bar has closed above 1.2044 yet.
FIL Price Levels That Decide the Next Leg
Up: a four-hour close above 1.2110, the Tuesday high, opens the September 26 high at 1.2296 and then the May 8 high at 1.3240. The case fails on a four-hour close back below 1.1443.
Down: a four-hour close below 1.1443, the Tuesday low, points to 1.0839, the weekend high, and then the weekend floor at 1.0426. That case fails on a four-hour close above 1.1888.
Bitcoin trades near $86,000, well above its 100-day average. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $241.09 million in the week ending October 2. FIL sits inside its 20-day range. The next fixed date is Thursday, October 15, when the vesting schedule in Filecoin’s own update stops.
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