$50.4 Million XRP Transferred to Coinbase Ahead of Ripple Escrow Unlocking, Painful 96.8% Bitcoin Metric Highlighted by CryptoQuant, Is Saylor’s BTC Buying Streak Finally Over?: Morning Crypto Report

TL;DR

• XRP whale alert: 37.25 million XRP worth over $54 million moved to Coinbase ahead of Ripple’s massive one billion token escrow unlock scheduled for April 1.
• BTC “pain” metric: 96.8% of short-term Bitcoin holders are now at a loss; historically, this extreme capitulation signals a local market bottom.
• Saylor pauses: Strategy (MSTR) ends its 13-week Bitcoin buying streak, shifting focus to STRC preferred shares amid a $51.5 billion portfolio hold.
• Market outlook: Bitcoin sits in a “decision zone” at $67,800. Key support holds at $65K, but $2.2 billion in FTX creditor payouts may spark volatility.

XRP whale transferred $50.4 million to Coinbase ahead of Ripple escrow unlock

A major transaction was recorded on the cryptocurrency market today by Whale Alert. An unknown wallet transferred more than 37.25 million XRP, worth approximately $54 million, to Coinbase. The movement of funds comes as Ripple prepares for its monthly token release from the escrow system, scheduled for April 1.

The inflow of coins to Coinbase, based on common crypto market interpretation, can be associated with profit-taking or liquidity provisioning ahead of expected volatility at the start of the month. 

As previously stated, on the first day of each new month, Ripple unlocks one billion XRP from its escrow accounts. Historically, around 80% of this amount is returned back to escrow, leaving approximately 200 to 300 million tokens in circulation for operational needs and institutional sales. For example, in March 2026, 700 million XRP were returned to escrow, and only 300 million entered circulation.

Although the figure of one billion XRP appears significant, at the current price it exceeds $1.3 billion. The market typically prices this event in advance, minimizing volatility on the day of unlocks. The market is now closely watching whether the 37 million XRP will be sold in the coming hours. If the price holds the $1.32 level, it will confirm buyer capacity to absorb large supply volumes ahead of the April cycle.

Short-term Bitcoin holders face extreme losses

At the same time, fresh data from CryptoQuant indicates that short-term Bitcoin holders are facing extreme financial pressure. Currently, 96.8% of the total coin supply held by this group is at a loss. Their total holdings amount to approximately 5,198,409 BTC, with only 3.2% — around 166,349 BTC — in unrealized profit. About 5,030,000 BTC remain below their purchase price.

CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn describes the current phase as one of no satisfaction for short-term participants. Market dynamics show broad capitulation among weaker holders, supported by the following data. 

Bitcoin is trading well below the average acquisition price for short-term holders, which stood at $104,000 in March 2026. Over the past 24 hours, there has been a surge in transfers from active investors to exchange wallets, historically indicating intent to exit positions at a loss and move into fiat.

The late-March news environment is shaped by outflows from Bitcoin ETF flows and a broader decline in risk appetite amid global instability. Historically, when the loss metric exceeds 95%, it signals a local market bottom. This phase often precedes redistribution from speculative participants to long-term holders, forming a base for Bitcoin’s price recovery.

Strategy officially ends 13-week Bitcoin buying streak

Strategy confirmed in an official regulatory filing that it did not purchase Bitcoin last week, ending a continuous streak of weekly acquisitions that began in late December. Despite the pause, the company continues to hold 762,099 BTC, with its portfolio valued at over $51.5 billion.

The previous accumulation streak lasted 13 consecutive weeks, during which the company aggressively expanded its position to record levels. Earlier this week, the market anticipated this outcome, as founder Michael Saylor did not publish his usual Sunday post featuring orange dots, which had consistently preceded new purchase announcements. 

Instead, Saylor focused on promoting the company’s preferred shares under the STRC ticker, emphasizing lower volatility and stable yield, indicating a temporary shift in capital allocation priorities.

The next key step is monitoring the company’s quarterly report to determine whether this pause is temporary or signals a transition to a new phase in managing its crypto assets.

Crypto Market Outlook: Bitcoin in “decision zone”

The cryptocurrency market enters the final week of March in a state of cautious optimism. After a weekend with minimal volatility despite persistent macro tension, Bitcoin is attempting stabilization as investors process macroeconomic risks. The price of the leading cryptocurrency is up more than 2.5%, trading at $67,800.

Key points:

• Bitcoin price holds critical support at $65,000, but a bullish continuation requires closing above key levels, with $70,200 as the near-term target.
• Over the past 12 hours, more than $100 million in short positions have been liquidated versus less than $23 million in longs, indicating a local short squeeze.
• Distribution of $2.2 billion to FTX creditors may introduce short-term supply on March 31 and April 3.
• U.S. unemployment data this week will act as a primary trigger for both the dollar and crypto markets.

As long as Bitcoin remains above $65,000, the recovery scenario toward the $70,000 level remains the dominant outlook.