XRP smart money sentiment on Binance and Bybit has turned bearish, while the market attempts to recover from recent lows.
Coinglass data shows that smart money sentiment on both derivatives exchanges has fallen to extremely bearish levels, which has raised concerns about whether XRP can maintain its latest recovery.
The bearish outlook comes as XRP regains the $1.40 price level after losing approximately 14% of its value in just 48 hours. Although buyers have started pushing prices higher, smart money traders are doubtful that the recovery will last.
OKX is the only exception among the three major derivatives exchanges, as its smart money sentiment remains neutral. This presents some relief, but the overall picture remains negative.
XRP Retail and Whale Traders Remain Bullish
Retail traders and whale accounts across Binance, OKX, and Bybit show a different outlook, with several groups maintaining bullish positions despite the negative XRP smart money standing.
On Binance, retail traders have a long/short ratio of 2.41, which Coinglass classifies as bullish. Whale accounts are even more optimistic, with a 2.82 ratio, indicating extremely bullish sentiment. Binance whale position holders also maintain a bullish outlook, with a long/short ratio of 1.82.
OKX has a more mixed trend. Retail traders record a long/short ratio of 3.06, which translates to extreme bullishness.
However, whale accounts have a ratio of 0.92, suggesting a nearly neutral outlook. Whale positions are even more bearish, with the ratio falling to 0.37, a level Coinglass classifies as extremely bearish.
Bybit records strong bullish sentiment among both retail traders and whale accounts. Retail traders have a long/short ratio of 3.80, while whale accounts post a reading of 3.78. Coinglass rates both figures as extremely bullish.
However, Bybit whale positions show a more balanced outlook, with a ratio of 0.97, which falls within the neutral range.
XRP Futures Short Volume Moves Ahead of Long Volume
XRP futures trading data also shows continued selling pressure. Over the past 24 hours, short taker volume reached $1.18 billion, accounting for 52.23% of total taker activity. Long taker volume stood at $1.08 billion, representing the remaining 47.77%.
Although the difference between the two sides is relatively small, short sellers currently hold the advantage. This trend also aligns with the bearish signals from smart money traders on Binance and Bybit.
XRP Recovers to $1.41 After Sudden Correction
This comes despite the recent recovery attempt. For context, XRP fell from $1.52 on Oct. 6 to a local low of $1.31 on Oct. 8, losing about 14% of its value within 48 hours. The decline put pressure on the token before buyers stepped in and helped it recover.
XRP has since climbed to $1.4075. It has recorded four consecutive green four-hour candlesticks over the last 16 hours, which shows that buying activity has picked up, allowing the token to regain the $1.40 level.
The recovery has also pushed XRP above the upper trendline of the descending channel that formed during the Oct. 6-8 correction. This move could support further gains if buyers maintain their momentum.
However, the recovery remains at risk if buying pressure weakens. XRP could fall toward $1.37, a level near the upper trendline of the former descending channel. A break below $1.37 would push the token back inside the channel and could lead to further losses.
DMI Shows Bears Still Have the Advantage
The Directional Movement Index (DMI) also shows continued bearish pressure on XRP, although the latest readings suggest that selling momentum is starting to ease.
The positive directional indicator (+DI) stands at 15.13 and is moving higher, suggesting that buyers are beginning to gain some control over price action. However, the negative directional indicator (-DI) remains much higher at 31.46.
Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 41.11, which indicates that the prevailing trend remains strong. However, both the -DI and ADX are declining, suggesting that bearish pressure is gradually weakening.
For XRP bulls to strengthen the recovery and challenge the bearish smart money outlook, the token must hold above the $1.37 support level. Buyers would also need to push the +DI decisively above the -DI to confirm a change in momentum.
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