Solana’s Big Upgrade Could Make Its Transaction Count Drop

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Blockchain

Solana’s Big Upgrade Could Make Its Transaction Count Drop

Solana’s Alpenglow consensus upgrade is expected to begin its mainnet rollout on October 21. It targets finality in roughly 150 milliseconds, but it will also remove validator vote transactions from blocks, meaning Solana’s total transaction and TPS charts may drop without any decline in user activity.

Key Takeaways

  • Alpenglow consensus takes over about 5,000 slots, roughly 18 minutes, after the epoch starts.
  • Votor targets finality of around 150 milliseconds, down from roughly 12.8 seconds under TowerBFT.
  • Vote transactions will leave blocks, requiring transaction-count and TPS dashboards to set new baselines.

October 21 starts the rollout, not the instant switch

Solana Foundation’s Alpenglow documentation places the start of epoch 1064 at approximately 15:00 UTC on October 21, 2026. Because epoch timing can drift, that clock time is an estimate rather than a fixed activation moment.

The network will continue using TowerBFT for the first 5,000 slots of the epoch, or about 18 minutes. Alpenglow consensus is then scheduled to take over at slot 459,653,000.

The mainnet release covers Votor, the new voting and finality protocol. Rotor, a separate Alpenglow component designed to replace Solana’s Turbine block-propagation system, is planned for a later release and does not yet have a mainnet date.

The upgrade changes different things for different users

Who is affected? What changes after Alpenglow
Wallet users and ordinary app users Nothing about signing, sending or approving transactions changes. Solana’s transaction format, programs, account model and fees remain the same.
Apps waiting for settlement They can use finalized confirmation with far less delay once Alpenglow is live. The old distinction between confirmed and finalized effectively disappears.
Indexers, explorers and data providers They must update how they read block data, account for bank_id and re-baseline metrics that included vote transactions.
Validator operators They need an Agave-based client and at least 0.8 SOL above the rent-exempt minimum in the vote account for the Validator Admission Ticket fee.

This split is important. Alpenglow is designed to leave the ordinary wallet experience intact, but the infrastructure that produces, streams and interprets Solana data will change materially.

Votor replaces vote transactions with direct validator certificates

Under Solana’s current TowerBFT consensus, validators cast votes as on-chain transactions. Those votes accumulate across 32 slots before a block reaches finality, creating the roughly 12.8-second wait for the strongest settlement guarantee.

Votor takes those votes out of the block itself. Validators send them directly to one another and aggregate them into certificates, allowing a block to reach finality in one or two voting rounds.

The 150-millisecond target refers to how long a transaction takes to become final. It does not mean Solana will produce a new block every 150 milliseconds. Slot times were reduced separately to 200 milliseconds in October.

For services that wait for finality before crediting a deposit, releasing goods or completing a transfer, the change could remove much of the delay created by Solana’s own consensus process. It does not remove delays imposed by exchange risk checks, bridges, payment providers or other chains.

That matters most in workflows where one party waits for a stronger settlement guarantee before completing the other side of a transaction. Solana’s delivery-versus-payment escrow tool is one example of infrastructure that could benefit from faster finality without requiring users to change how they submit transactions.

Vote removal will change Solana’s transaction data overnight

The most visible change for analysts may not be finality at all. Vote transactions will no longer appear in Solana blocks under Votor. Since they have represented a large share of the transactions counted in blocks, total transaction counts and TPS figures can fall sharply after activation.

That would be an accounting change, not evidence that Solana suddenly lost users or application demand. A dashboard that continues to compare post-Alpenglow totals with pre-upgrade figures without adjusting its baseline could falsely report a collapse in network activity.

What not to conclude after October 21

“Solana transactions fell, so Solana usage fell.” First check whether the dashboard includes pre-upgrade validator votes in its historical baseline. If it does, the headline transaction count is no longer directly comparable.

Solana’s own guidance tells indexers and throughput dashboards to re-baseline their data. Tools that previously measured validator participation by parsing Vote Program instructions must also switch to the certificates carried in Alpenglow’s block footer.

Use a basket of activity measures after the upgrade

No single metric can describe network demand. Once vote transactions disappear, the cleanest reading will combine several measures rather than treating total TPS as a verdict on its own.

  • Non-vote transactions: A direct measure of transactions generated outside validator voting.
  • Active fee payers: A better indicator of participation breadth than raw transaction totals alone.
  • Stablecoin transfer count and value: Useful for tracking payment and settlement activity.
  • DEX volume and unique traders: Together, they give more context than volume alone.
  • Fee revenue: Helpful alongside user metrics, though it can also move with fee conditions and trading intensity.

That approach makes post-upgrade comparisons more honest. If total TPS falls while non-vote transactions, active fee payers and application volume remain stable, the network has changed its accounting—not necessarily its demand.

What will show whether the rollout worked?

The first test is realised finality. The network needs to demonstrate that blocks reach finality close to the stated target without meaningful instability or a rise in skipped slots.

The second is operational readiness. Validators must migrate to supported Agave-based clients; Firedancer and Frankendancer are not supported during the transition. Indexers and RPC/Geyser users also need to handle the new bank_id field, because a slot can contain more than one candidate block.

The third is data continuity. Explorers, analytics platforms and media reports need to distinguish between fewer validator votes and weaker application demand before drawing conclusions from Solana’s post-upgrade transaction charts.

Alpenglow makes Solana faster, and its old TPS baseline obsolete

Alpenglow’s immediate promise is much faster finality without changing how ordinary users send transactions. Its less obvious consequence is that familiar Solana activity statistics will need a reset once validator votes disappear from blocks.

After October 21, a fall in headline transaction counts should be treated as a measurement question first. Only a simultaneous decline in non-vote activity, active fee payers and application-level usage would support the conclusion that demand itself has weakened.


This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Mainnet activation timing and performance depend on network conditions and implementation readiness.

Author

Kosta Gushterov - Coindoo author

Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.

Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem.

To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem.

His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.





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