Wintermute says crypto is losing flow support as Bitcoin ETFs shed $679M and Ethereum ETFs lose $542M. Which levels matter next?
Crypto is losing its flow support, and last week’s numbers show it. Bitcoin fell 3.2% and Ethereum dropped 7.0%, according to Wintermute.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $679M in net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost $542M. The Bitcoin figure was the largest weekly total since late June. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 set a record.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Reveal Crypto’s Missing Earnings Support
Wintermute says the split comes down to earnings. Q3 earnings growth estimates for the S&P 500 sit near 29% year over year and are still rising. That profit growth is paying for a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24%.
Crypto has no earnings to offset those yields. In Wintermute’s view, it rises only while new money keeps arriving. When flows reversed, nothing sat underneath the price.
The trigger landed Wednesday. FOMC minutes showed most officials expect another hike by year-end, with no mention of cuts. The debate has shifted from when the Fed eases to how far it tightens.
Bitcoin opened the week near $86,000 to $87,000 and failed there for a third time Tuesday. It slid to roughly $83,000 after the minutes, then bottomed near $80,400 on Thursday. It recovered to the mid-83,000s by Monday as oil eased.
CoinGlass data shows $1.19B in liquidations over 24 hours around Thursday’s low. About $1.06B came from long positions. Wintermute called the move a flush.
— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) October 13, 2026
Why Ethereum and Altcoins Fell Harder Than Bitcoin
Bitcoin held up better than the rest of the market. Its dominance rose toward 59.5% on a reported basis. Wintermute called that the clearest internal signal of the week.
Ethereum fell most because it carried a second shock. A researcher associated with the Ethereum Foundation urged users to migrate to new addresses.
Altcoins dropped 2.9% overall. Only 11 of 66 large-cap alts above $1B finished green, and the median lost 3.7%. UNI fell 15.8% after a strong run the prior month.
Money that left DeFi and large caps flowed into AI-related names. NEAR was the standout. Wintermute could not confirm the causes cited, which included post-quantum signature support and a short squeeze.
Read also: Bitcoin Eyes $89,000 as Whales Add 16,010 BTC During the Dip
What Bitcoin ETF Outflows Mean for Traders Now
Wintermute wants two conditions before it turns bullish again. Long-term yields must settle, and spot ETF flows must return to net inflows. Yields are unlikely to ease before the November 3 midterms.
Until then, Bitcoin stays a high-beta, negative-skew expression of the equity market. Wintermute would not chase lower-quality altcoins on anything resembling a rally. It still calls the cycle early and stays constructive long term.
The firm would turn cautious if the U.S. 30-year yield breaks above 5.64%, the level it printed September 30. It would also grow wary if Bitcoin keeps stalling around $82,500.
Two catalysts arrive this week. September CPI on Wednesday will show whether energy inflation is spreading into core prices. AI-related and financial earnings will also start landing.
Bitcoin ETF outflows signal that crypto’s rally depended on fresh money, not earnings. Without returning inflows and calmer yields, the downside risk stays open.
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