Markets have quickly repriced the odds of a Fed move. On prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of an October rate hike briefly spiked to nearly 50% after the CPI release before easing to about 30%. CME’s FedWatch tool showed a similar pattern: odds initially jumped to almost 47% from roughly 22%, before retreating to 26% as of writing.
“Stronger U.S. inflation data has renewed concerns that interest rates will stay higher for longer,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based exchange Giottus. “September inflation rose to 3.7% annually, increasing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next move. Institutional demand also remains fragile. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $150.5 million in outflows on October 14, reversing the previous day’s $175.7 million inflow.”
Market-making firm STS Digital said the uncertainty could weigh on liquidity across markets.
“With the next FOMC a coin flip, this uncertainty is damaging liquidity and dampening risk appetite across all asset classes,” the firm’s Anderson told CoinDesk in an email.
Still, Anderson thinks the Fed will hold interest rates steady this month, which is consistent with the over 70% probability of a status quo decision priced by the CME Fed funds futures as of this writing.
“Despite recent optimism in digital assets, tokens now look increasingly sensitive to macro factors, with energy shocks, fixed-income volatility and AI valuations weighing on sentiment,” he added.
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